It’s good to look at the big picture every once in a while
I’ve blogged previously about the fact that there has been a secular trend in the world towards reduced interstate and intrastate violence — i.e., there’s a lot less war going on. Oxblog links to a new endeavour — the Human Security Report, which is funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the governments of Canada, Sweden, ...
I've blogged previously about the fact that there has been a secular trend in the world towards reduced interstate and intrastate violence -- i.e., there's a lot less war going on. Oxblog links to a new endeavour -- the Human Security Report, which is funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the governments of Canada, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, and the U.K. The overview is chock-full of heart-warming statistics: The number of genocides and politicides plummeted by 80% between 1988 and 2001. The number of armed conflicts around the world has declined by more than 40% since the early 1990s. International crises, often harbingers of war, declined by more than 70% between 1981 and 2001. The number of refugees dropped by some 45% between 1992 and 2003, as more and more wars came toan end. The period since the end of World War II is the longest interval of uninterrupted peace between the major powers in hundreds of years. The number of actual and attempted military coups has been declining for more than 40 years. In 1963 there were 25 coups and attempted coups around the world, the highest number in the post?World War II period. In 2004 there were only 10 coup attempts--a 60% decline. All of them failed. [I've touched on this point before as well--DD.] [So, is there any bad news?--ed.] Sure -- the rate of reported rapes has more than doubled in the past eight years. [Couldn't that also be, in an odd way, a good thing? Rapes might not be more frequent so much as that they are now reported, which implies a greater acceptance of the notion of rape as acrime?--ed.] The optimist in me would like to agree with this, but the fact that the doubling has taken place in the last seven years makes me very suspicious. One would assume that improved reporting should lead to a slow secular increase (which is the long-term trend) rather than the current spike. Unless a big country like China or India suddenly improved its data collection, that spike is definitely worrisome. UPDATE: Thanks to Kevin Drum for the link. Some of the commenters are suggesting that this peaceful trend ended in 2001. I'm happy to report that this is not true -- it's just that some of the data listed above ended in 2001. Overall, let me quote from Gregg Easterbrook's TNR essay on this subject from six months ago: Everyone agrees that the worst moment for human conflict was World War II; but how to rank, say, the current separatist fighting in Indonesia versus, say, the Algerian war of independence is more speculative. Nevertheless, the Peace and Conflict studies name 1991 as the peak post-World War II year for totality of global fighting, giving that year a ranking of 179 on a scale that rates the extent and destructiveness of combat. By 2000, in spite of war in the Balkans and genocide in Rwanda, the number had fallen to 97; by 2002 to 81; and, at the end of 2004, it stood at 65. This suggests the extent and intensity of global combat is now less than half what it was 15 years ago.
I’ve blogged previously about the fact that there has been a secular trend in the world towards reduced interstate and intrastate violence — i.e., there’s a lot less war going on. Oxblog links to a new endeavour — the Human Security Report, which is funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the governments of Canada, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, and the U.K. The overview is chock-full of heart-warming statistics:
The number of genocides and politicides plummeted by 80% between 1988 and 2001. The number of armed conflicts around the world has declined by more than 40% since the early 1990s. International crises, often harbingers of war, declined by more than 70% between 1981 and 2001. The number of refugees dropped by some 45% between 1992 and 2003, as more and more wars came toan end. The period since the end of World War II is the longest interval of uninterrupted peace between the major powers in hundreds of years. The number of actual and attempted military coups has been declining for more than 40 years. In 1963 there were 25 coups and attempted coups around the world, the highest number in the post?World War II period. In 2004 there were only 10 coup attempts–a 60% decline. All of them failed. [I’ve touched on this point before as well–DD.]
[So, is there any bad news?–ed.] Sure — the rate of reported rapes has more than doubled in the past eight years. [Couldn’t that also be, in an odd way, a good thing? Rapes might not be more frequent so much as that they are now reported, which implies a greater acceptance of the notion of rape as acrime?–ed.] The optimist in me would like to agree with this, but the fact that the doubling has taken place in the last seven years makes me very suspicious. One would assume that improved reporting should lead to a slow secular increase (which is the long-term trend) rather than the current spike. Unless a big country like China or India suddenly improved its data collection, that spike is definitely worrisome. UPDATE: Thanks to Kevin Drum for the link. Some of the commenters are suggesting that this peaceful trend ended in 2001. I’m happy to report that this is not true — it’s just that some of the data listed above ended in 2001. Overall, let me quote from Gregg Easterbrook’s TNR essay on this subject from six months ago:
Everyone agrees that the worst moment for human conflict was World War II; but how to rank, say, the current separatist fighting in Indonesia versus, say, the Algerian war of independence is more speculative. Nevertheless, the Peace and Conflict studies name 1991 as the peak post-World War II year for totality of global fighting, giving that year a ranking of 179 on a scale that rates the extent and destructiveness of combat. By 2000, in spite of war in the Balkans and genocide in Rwanda, the number had fallen to 97; by 2002 to 81; and, at the end of 2004, it stood at 65. This suggests the extent and intensity of global combat is now less than half what it was 15 years ago.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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