In Sharon’s Shadow

As he lay unconscious, brain-damaged and breathing through a respirator in his Jerusalem hospital bed, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharons political allies and foes are contemplating the future without him.

Sharon is a towering figure in Israeli history. He fought bravely in the countrys wars, expanded Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, and helped establish Likud, one of Israels two major political parties. After assuming the prime ministership in 2001, he used his credibility and popularity to push for peace with Palestine and force the Israeli pullout from Gaza.

But during the past four years, Sharon was more than just the prime minister: He was the embodiment of Israeli public consensus on Palestine. Indeed, he was so in step with the people, in November, Sharon left the party he helped start and founded his own, the centrist Kadima (Forward) Party. The leaders being discussed as his potential successorsVice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Likud leader Benjamin Bibi Netanyahu, and Labor Party leader Amir Peretzwill have a hard time filling the space he once occupied.

As Sharons No. 2, Ehud Olmert is a natural candidate for the prime ministers job. Olmert has already assumed power for the next 100 days and will be the de facto replacement for Sharon as the head of Kadima. A snap poll taken January 5 showed Kadima would win 40 of 120 seats in parliament with Olmert at the head, an enormous number similar to what Sharon was polling before his massive stroke. But many in Israel say those numbersand support for an Olmert successionare sure to fall. The prevailing assumption among Kadima members is that their party will lose altitude in the polls over the coming weeks, Yossi Verter, political writer for the daily Haaretz wrote. He said Olmerts numbers were clearly the result of sorrow and public shock about Sharons demise.

The reason is simple: Sharon created Kadima to pursue his own agenda with the Palestiniansmore land withdrawals that he personally, as the architect of Israels final borders, would delineateand fashioned the party around himself. The party is so closely identified with Sharon that its Web site has his name in it (www.kadimasharon.org). Its not clear what this party is without Sharon, says Gil Tamary, a veteran political reporter for Israels Channel 10. The people wanted Sharon. He was the glue that held them together.

Still, some believe Olmert has been underestimated, recalling his upset victory over six-term Jerusalem Mayor Teddy Kollek in 1993. And, among the likely political contenders, his politics are closest to the Israeli center.

A Kadima breakup could leave the door open for one former prime minister who has been waiting in the wings: Benjamin Netanyahu, the 56-year-old Likud leader who came to power in the wake of Yitzhak Rabins assassination in 1995. A spate of Palestinian terrorist attacks in early 1996 helped Netanyahu to a narrow election victory over then Labor Party leader Shimon Peres.

Netanyahu was serving as finance minister when Sharon decided to withdraw 8,000 settlers from the Gaza Strip last August. He ended up resigning his post in protest. Now, if Netanyahu wants to return to power, he will need to moderate his views to come into line with those of the Israeli public, 60 percent of which consistently says it wants to see further withdrawals of Jewish settlers from the West Bank. Clearly, the country has turned to the center, says Calev Ben-David, a veteran Israeli political commentator who runs the Israel Project in Jerusalem. Netanyahu might try to turn to the center, though Ben-David says that would be plainly perceived as a ploy.

Another possible Sharon successor is new Labor Party leader Amir Peretz. The 54-year-old Moroccan-born immigrant shook the Israeli political establishment in mid-November with his surprise victory over Labor Party stalwart Peres for the leadership post. Peretz, who is popular among the working classes because of his pledges to return state control to recently privatized industries, may be a rising star who is ready to breath new life into Israels political mainstream. But many believe the prime ministers job would be too much too soon. Peretz has little leadership experience outside the realm of labor. Plus hes completely unidentifiable outside of Israel. Hes very unknown to the [Bush] administration, says Daniel Kurtzer, U.S. ambassador to Israel from 2001 until last September. Hes been doing so poorly in garnering public support Kurtzer says, adding that his commitment to a socialist economy and simplistic grasp of the peace process are problems for him.

If winning the trust of the Israeli public werent hard enough, any Sharon successor will have a hard time cultivating the chummy ties Sharon managed with U.S. President George W. Bush. The two met a dozen times. More often than not, they agreed on the hard questions, such as the best tactics for fighting the war on terror. But they also had a personal connection. The fact that they were both avid ranchersSharons ranch is in Israels Negev Deserthelped the two leaders develop a close, trusting relationship over the past four years. The next Israeli leader will start from scratch on that front, too.

When Sharon draws his last breath, the people of Israel will begin to mourn in earnest. Although his critics were sometimes fierce and many, he will be remembered as a strong, capable leader who, in his final months, was courageous enough to abandon the Gaza Stripand with it, his dream of a Greater Israelin favor of pragmatism. It looks like he will not live to see Israels borders formally drawn and more settlements removed. But he may have already charted a course that his successorwhoever that may behas no choice but to follow.