It’s been a busy day for Iran-watchers
Let’s see what’s been going on with regard to Iran for the past day or so, in order from tragedy to farce: 1) The BBC reports that Britain, France and Germanyt will request an extraordinary session of the IAEA in order to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. 2) In an interview with Newsweek‘s ...
Let's see what's been going on with regard to Iran for the past day or so, in order from tragedy to farce: 1) The BBC reports that Britain, France and Germanyt will request an extraordinary session of the IAEA in order to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. 2) In an interview with Newsweek's Christpher Dickey, IAEA head Mohammed El Baradei -- who was quite the skeptic when it came to whether Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons -- makes it clear that he's pissed at the Iranians: DICKEY: You've said you're running out of patience with Iran. What does that mean? ELBARADEI: For the last three years we have been doing intensive verification in Iran, and even after three years I am not yet in a position to make a judgment on the peaceful nature of the [nuclear] program. We still need to assure ourselves through access to documents, individuals [and] locations that we have seen all that we ought to see and that there is nothing fishy, if you like, about the program. At one site called Lavizan, facilities were bulldozed by Iran before you could look at them, and you weren't allowed to run tests in the area. We clearly need to take environmental samplings from some of the equipment that used to be in Lavizan. We need to interview some of the people who have been engaged in Lavizan. We have [also] gotten some information about some modification of their missiles that could have some relationship to the nuclear program. So, we need to clarify all these things. It is very specific. They know what we want to do, and they just have to go and do it. I'm making it very clear right now that I cannot extend the deadline, which is ... March 6. With all due respect, the Iranians don't seem to care what you think. Well, they might not seem to care. But if I say that I am not able to confirm the peaceful nature of that program after three years of intensive work, well, that's a conclusion that's going to reverberate, I think, around the world.... What if the Iranians are just buying time for their bomb building? That's why I said we are coming to the litmus test in the next few weeks. Diplomacy is not just talking. Diplomacy has to be backed by pressure and, in extreme cases, by force. We have rules. We have to do everything possible to uphold the rules through conviction. If not, then you impose them. Of course, this has to be the last resort, but sometimes you have to do it. You're angry. No, I'm not angry, but I'd like to make sure the process will not be abused. There's a difference. I still would like to be able to avoid escalation, but at the same time I do not want the agency to be cheated; I do not want the process to be abused. I think that is clear. I have a responsibility, and I would like to fulfill it with as good a conscience as I can. This would be more persuasive if ElBaradei didn't make this point every month or so. 3) Iran has expelled CNN from working in Iran because of a slight mistranslation problem, according to the AP's Nasser Karimi: Iran said Monday it is barring CNN from working in Iran "until further notice" due to its mistranslation of comments made by the president in a recent news conference about the country's nuclear research. In a speech Saturday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defended Iran's right to continue nuclear research. State media have complained since the speech that CNN used the translation "nuclear weapons" instead of "nuclear technology." The ban by the Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry was read in a statement on state-run television. "Due to mistranslation of the words of Ahmadinejad during his press conference, activities of the American CNN in Tehran are banned until further notice," the statement said. CNN acknowledged that it had screwed up -- but this does strike me as overkill. 4) Finally, in a separate story, the AP's Karimi reports that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has decided to make his contribution to genocide studies: Iran announced plans yesterday for a conference to examine evidence for the Holocaust, a new step in hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's campaign against Israel -- one that could deepen Tehran's international isolation. Ahmadinejad already has called the Nazis' World War II slaughter of European Jews a ''myth" and has said the Jewish state should be wiped off the map or moved to Germany or the United States.... Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi did not disclose where or when the Holocaust conference would be held, and he would not say who would attend or what had prompted Tehran to sponsor it. Ahmadinejad, who took office in August, caused an international outcry in October by calling Israel a ''disgraceful blot" that should be ''wiped off the map."You just know this will be one of those invitation-only kind of conferences where only the cream of the Holocaust-deniers will be asked to attend. If Iran keeps this up -- making news, kicking out competitors -- they're going to exhaust that poor AP guy based in Tehran.
Let’s see what’s been going on with regard to Iran for the past day or so, in order from tragedy to farce:
1) The BBC reports that Britain, France and Germanyt will request an extraordinary session of the IAEA in order to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. 2) In an interview with Newsweek‘s Christpher Dickey, IAEA head Mohammed El Baradei — who was quite the skeptic when it came to whether Saddam Hussein had nuclear weapons — makes it clear that he’s pissed at the Iranians:
DICKEY: You’ve said you’re running out of patience with Iran. What does that mean? ELBARADEI: For the last three years we have been doing intensive verification in Iran, and even after three years I am not yet in a position to make a judgment on the peaceful nature of the [nuclear] program. We still need to assure ourselves through access to documents, individuals [and] locations that we have seen all that we ought to see and that there is nothing fishy, if you like, about the program. At one site called Lavizan, facilities were bulldozed by Iran before you could look at them, and you weren’t allowed to run tests in the area. We clearly need to take environmental samplings from some of the equipment that used to be in Lavizan. We need to interview some of the people who have been engaged in Lavizan. We have [also] gotten some information about some modification of their missiles that could have some relationship to the nuclear program. So, we need to clarify all these things. It is very specific. They know what we want to do, and they just have to go and do it. I’m making it very clear right now that I cannot extend the deadline, which is … March 6. With all due respect, the Iranians don’t seem to care what you think. Well, they might not seem to care. But if I say that I am not able to confirm the peaceful nature of that program after three years of intensive work, well, that’s a conclusion that’s going to reverberate, I think, around the world…. What if the Iranians are just buying time for their bomb building? That’s why I said we are coming to the litmus test in the next few weeks. Diplomacy is not just talking. Diplomacy has to be backed by pressure and, in extreme cases, by force. We have rules. We have to do everything possible to uphold the rules through conviction. If not, then you impose them. Of course, this has to be the last resort, but sometimes you have to do it. You’re angry. No, I’m not angry, but I’d like to make sure the process will not be abused. There’s a difference. I still would like to be able to avoid escalation, but at the same time I do not want the agency to be cheated; I do not want the process to be abused. I think that is clear. I have a responsibility, and I would like to fulfill it with as good a conscience as I can.
This would be more persuasive if ElBaradei didn’t make this point every month or so. 3) Iran has expelled CNN from working in Iran because of a slight mistranslation problem, according to the AP’s Nasser Karimi:
Iran said Monday it is barring CNN from working in Iran “until further notice” due to its mistranslation of comments made by the president in a recent news conference about the country’s nuclear research. In a speech Saturday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defended Iran’s right to continue nuclear research. State media have complained since the speech that CNN used the translation “nuclear weapons” instead of “nuclear technology.” The ban by the Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry was read in a statement on state-run television. “Due to mistranslation of the words of Ahmadinejad during his press conference, activities of the American CNN in Tehran are banned until further notice,” the statement said.
CNN acknowledged that it had screwed up — but this does strike me as overkill. 4) Finally, in a separate story, the AP’s Karimi reports that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has decided to make his contribution to genocide studies:
Iran announced plans yesterday for a conference to examine evidence for the Holocaust, a new step in hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s campaign against Israel — one that could deepen Tehran’s international isolation. Ahmadinejad already has called the Nazis’ World War II slaughter of European Jews a ”myth” and has said the Jewish state should be wiped off the map or moved to Germany or the United States…. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi did not disclose where or when the Holocaust conference would be held, and he would not say who would attend or what had prompted Tehran to sponsor it. Ahmadinejad, who took office in August, caused an international outcry in October by calling Israel a ”disgraceful blot” that should be ”wiped off the map.”
You just know this will be one of those invitation-only kind of conferences where only the cream of the Holocaust-deniers will be asked to attend.
If Iran keeps this up — making news, kicking out competitors — they’re going to exhaust that poor AP guy based in Tehran.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
More from Foreign Policy

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense
If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War
Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests
And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.