Is the world really getting more pacific?
Slate’s Fred Kaplan has an essay that tries to debunk claims made in last year’s Human Security Report that the world is becoming more pacific. Among his many points: The report’s main exhibit, Figure 1.1, is a graph showing the numbers of wars?international, civil, and colonial?from 1946-2002. The authors summarize this graph as follows: It ...
Slate's Fred Kaplan has an essay that tries to debunk claims made in last year's Human Security Report that the world is becoming more pacific. Among his many points: The report's main exhibit, Figure 1.1, is a graph showing the numbers of wars?international, civil, and colonial?from 1946-2002. The authors summarize this graph as follows: It reveals that the number of armed conflicts increased steadily decade by decade throughout the Cold War. Then in the early 1990s, a steep decline started that continues to this day. Well, let's look at this graph. (Click here to follow along.) First, yes, the number of armed conflicts has declined since 1992?from 50 to 30. But this merely puts the world at the same level of turmoil as in 1976. I don't remember anybody thinking of that era as particularly tranquil. This sounds like a nice debunking, but it's pretty unconvincing to me, for two reasons: 1) If you look at the figure, it seems like the world was more peaceful 60 years ago -- but that's only because the total number of states in the system was much smaller than today. It's not surprising that the number of intrastate conflicts increased from 1946 to 1991 -- that's because the number of states in the system increased as well. What's interesting about the post-1991 system is that it's gotten more peaceful even as the number of states has increased. True, a lot of these new countries are microstates like Tonga -- but they also includes the former Soviet and Yugoslav republics. Kaplan's focus is on the numerator -- but you have to look at the denominator as well. That's what makes the decline in wars so surprising. 2) Unstated in the Human Security Report, but vital to the perception of a "peace epidemic," is the absence since 1945 of the most deadly form of international conflict -- a genuine great power war. For the near future, the U.S. won't be fighting China, India, Russia, or even the European Union. Great power wars are indeed rare, but the current peace of 60 years is the longest stretch of time without one breaking out since the birth of the modern state system. Kaplan is correct to point out that the current downturn in armed conflict might not be permanent -- but it's still a downturn. UPDATE: Andrew Mack -- Director of the Human Security Centre at UBC and the one responsible for the report that's being debated -- has taken the time and trouble to post his response to Kaplan in the comments section. Go check it out.
Slate’s Fred Kaplan has an essay that tries to debunk claims made in last year’s Human Security Report that the world is becoming more pacific. Among his many points:
The report’s main exhibit, Figure 1.1, is a graph showing the numbers of wars?international, civil, and colonial?from 1946-2002. The authors summarize this graph as follows:
It reveals that the number of armed conflicts increased steadily decade by decade throughout the Cold War. Then in the early 1990s, a steep decline started that continues to this day. Well, let’s look at this graph. (Click here to follow along.)
First, yes, the number of armed conflicts has declined since 1992?from 50 to 30. But this merely puts the world at the same level of turmoil as in 1976. I don’t remember anybody thinking of that era as particularly tranquil.
This sounds like a nice debunking, but it’s pretty unconvincing to me, for two reasons:
1) If you look at the figure, it seems like the world was more peaceful 60 years ago — but that’s only because the total number of states in the system was much smaller than today. It’s not surprising that the number of intrastate conflicts increased from 1946 to 1991 — that’s because the number of states in the system increased as well. What’s interesting about the post-1991 system is that it’s gotten more peaceful even as the number of states has increased. True, a lot of these new countries are microstates like Tonga — but they also includes the former Soviet and Yugoslav republics. Kaplan’s focus is on the numerator — but you have to look at the denominator as well. That’s what makes the decline in wars so surprising. 2) Unstated in the Human Security Report, but vital to the perception of a “peace epidemic,” is the absence since 1945 of the most deadly form of international conflict — a genuine great power war. For the near future, the U.S. won’t be fighting China, India, Russia, or even the European Union. Great power wars are indeed rare, but the current peace of 60 years is the longest stretch of time without one breaking out since the birth of the modern state system.
Kaplan is correct to point out that the current downturn in armed conflict might not be permanent — but it’s still a downturn. UPDATE: Andrew Mack — Director of the Human Security Centre at UBC and the one responsible for the report that’s being debated — has taken the time and trouble to post his response to Kaplan in the comments section. Go check it out.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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