Your Oscar predictions for 2006

Continuing an annual tradition here at danieldrezner.com since 2003, let's get right to our Independent Spirit Academy Award predictions for this Sunday night's event. In contrast to last year, I'm pleased to report that my lovely wife and I were able to see almost all of the major films nominated this year. Naturally, it seems that this was unnecessary, since a lot of the races appear to be mortal locks of one kind or another. There isn't even a lot of controversy this year. [What about the Boston Globe op-ed by Michael Kalin asserting that Oscar host Jon Stewart is bad for the body politic?--ed. Oh, you mean the op-ed that presented an absurd thesis and provided exactly zero empirical evidence to support the argument? No, the only controversy is whether a) Kalin used compromising photos of someone on the Globe's editorial staff to crack the op-ed page (this would explain a lot of bizarre editorial decisions at major newspapers); and b) whether any of my readers can dig up an even dumber op-ed published this calendar year.] As always, the hardworking staff here at danieldrezner.com provides two lists -- who will win and who should win. Best Supporting Actor Will win: George Clooney, Syrianna Should win: Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man Clooney was a triple threat this year, he's been a bankable movie star for five years, he put on 40 lbs. to play the role, and he gets under the skin of Bill O'Reilly. Is there any doubt? Giamatti wins it in my book for degree of difficulty. He's in a cliche-ridden movie (Erika and I always have a good laugh when one of us looks at the other and says, "You're the champion of my heart" in our best faux-Jersey accent) playing a stock character of long-suffering but loyal sidekick. He still makes the guy compelling. That's acting. Best Supporting Actress Will win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener Should win: Catherine Keener, Capote and The 40-Year Old Virgin Weisz has picked up all the pre-Oscar awards, so she seems to be a lock for this one and can I just say I don't get it? I mean, OK, she's perfectly serviceable in the role, and Lord knows, she's easy on the eyes. Unlike Giamatti, however, she never seemed to add anything unique or interesting to the stock role of passionate crusader. Michelle Williams was much more compelling in Brokeback Mountain. Keener, however, deserves the Oscar for playing two wildly divergent parts. She's all quite and stillness in Capote -- but I'd rather she win for The 40-Year Old Virgin. It's the toughest part in the movie to play (well, next to Steve Carrell), and yet she completely pulls off the "hot grandma" role. Best Actor: Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Drezner's First Law of Oscar: Whenever there's a close race between two actors -- neither of whom has won an Oscar before -- the award will always go to the guy with the longer and better track record. Between Hoffman and Heath Ledger, this means Hoffman [Does this law hold for actresses?--ed. No, that's Drezner's Second Law of Oscar: whenever there's a close race between two actresses -- neither of whom has won an Oscar before -- the hotter actress wins. I'm not saying it's right -- I'm saying that's the way it is.] In this case, Hoffman's win will be well-deserved. For me, the scene that clinched it was his diatribe at the bar to Harper Lee at the opening of To Kill a Mockingbird. That scene was Capote at his most loathsome, a harbinger of the dissolute, drnk narcissist he would become after In Cold Blood was released. Hoffman is willing to make his character completely unlikeable to service the movie. In the end, it comes to this: I can see Hoffman playing Ledger's character in Brokeback -- whereas I can't see Ledger playing Capote. Best Actress Will win: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Should win: Maria Bello, A History of Violence On Witherspoon, see what I wrote about George Clooney, and add the fact that she's a comedienne playing a dramatic role. Unless you're Jim Carrey, that's Oscar gold, baby. I still can't believe Bello did not score a nomination -- and I didn't even like A History of Violence. You could argue that Bello had a supporting role, but given the weak field this year in the best actress category, I think she belongs here. Best Director Will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Should win: Tie, Lee and Bennett Miller, Capote Ang Lee directing Brokeback was the perfect marriage of style to material, and he does a fine job. However, for my money MIller does something remarkable in Capote. Visually, the movie grabs your attention in the first half, especially in the contrast between the New York skyline and the flat Kansas landscape. As you begin to identify and understand the characters, however, Miller starts using more close-ups, focusing your attention on the people rather than the place. It's an arresting piece of work. Best Picture Will win: Brokeback Mountain Should win: Tie, Capote and The 40-Year Old Virgin I liked Brokeback a lot -- though to give Mickey Kaus some ammo, when I told my hetero friends that I was going to see it they almost instinctively recoiled in horror. And I'll confess that my affection for Capote might not be generalizable. However, as someone who gets paid to be a detached observer of real-world events, I found the theme of Capote to be much more interesting. As for The 40-Year Old Virgin, look, it's just the funniest movie of the year. Enjoy the show!! I'll be sure to post a post-awards update. POST-AWARDS UPDATE: A few quick thoughts: 1) Worst. Montages. Ever. (except for the cowboy one -- that was quite funny). Grease is an epic???!!! The Day After Tomorrow is on par with All The President's Men??!! Thank God Jon Stewart said, "And none of those problems ever occurred again. Hooray for us." 2) I'm glad an American-sounding name won Best Actress. 3) Jon Stewart was great, George Clooney does self-deprecating well, and Reese Witherspoon veered awfully close to Sally Field-territory. The entire show had an off-kilter feel to it... in that Stewart gently mocked how out of touch Hollywood might be with the rest of the country, while the rest of the show seemed dedicated to proving that Stewart was understating his case. Most bizarre moment -- the slow-motion dance sequence during Kathleen's York's performance of the Crash theme. 4) I was batting 1.000, and then we get to Best Picture. Jack, I swear... When Nicholson said Crash won Best Picture, it seemed so absurd to me that I was expecting Nicholson to say, "just kidding!" a second later. I dare my readers to name a worst Best Picture winner in the past 25 years. Crash will always be a testament to the effect that good actors can have on a one-dimensional, badly-plotted, didactic pile of Brechtian crap that passed for the script. What the f$%@? Hmmm..... I wonder if Hollywood still has a homophobia problem. [Or Capote and Brokeback split the pro-gay vote!!--ed. No, it looks like Kaus was right, but picked the wrong substitute winner. See also Tyler Cowen.] 5) They should create an Oscar for Best Hair just so Salma Hayek can win it. LAST UPDATE: James Wolcott concludes: "The true theme of tonight's broadcast: boobies!" Er... I thought that was the theme every year.