Oiling Kazakhstan’s Wheels of Reform

As the world watches Americas democratization push in the Middle East, a less visible, but still critical, struggle is under way in Central Asia. There, the United States and Russia are peddling very different models of governance. As the United States urges democratic reform and an active civil society, Russia emphasizes stability and warns about the influence of foreign NGOs. Increasingly, Russia appears to have the upper hand. Its latest victory came in Kazakhstan, a country in transition at the heart of Central Asian politics.

Liberalisms defeat in Kazakhstan didnt take the form of a stolen election or coup. Indeed, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the president of Kazakhstan, could have held flawless presidential elections on Dec. 4, 2005, and still won by a landslide. Credible pre-election surveys showed him leading by at least 70 percent. But there were widespread irregularities before and during the vote. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe cited numerous and persistent examples of intimidation by the authorities, as well as unauthorized persons interfering in polling stations, cases of multiple voting, [and] ballot box stuffing. Accounts differ as to whether Nazarbayev orchestrated the interference or merely winked at it. Whatever the case, he jeopardized the future of his country and threatened the stability of the region.

What accounts for this seemingly gratuitous chicanery? Nazarbayev, it appears, has ambitions that extend well beyond the next election. He wants to cement his familys position of power for years to come, and the precedent of a genuinely free electioneven one he won handilymight have threatened that.

The move toward dynasty in Kazakhstan is well under way. Nazarbayev has already placed relatives in powerful government and private-sector positions. His eldest daughter, Dariga, is the founder of a major pro-government political party, and his son-in-law holds a key position in the energy industry. I think Nazarbayev is starting to look into who is going to take his place, says regional expert Eric McGlinchey of George Mason University. While Nazarbayev is popular and could win in a fair election, the same is not true of Dariga and some of the rest of his entourage. Political reform could threaten a succession of his choosing.

International pressure to clean house has thus far failed. The United States is the only major player in the region pushing for democratic reform. But Washingtons room for maneuver is limited; the United States has growing oil interests in Kazakhstan and a dwindling pool of allies in Central Asia. (Neighboring Uzbekistan kicked out U.S. forces after the Bush administration criticized its human rights record.) Foreign aid, normally a source of strong leverage, holds little sway over Kazakhstan, which is rolling in oil money.

Nazarbayev sees his countrys economic success, and his corresponding popularity, as a license to retain power indefinitely. But a new elite is growing from the newfound wealth. Government scholarships send thousands of Kazakhs to be educated abroad each year, and increasingly sophisticated constituents will not remain mere spectators for long, particularly when Kazakhstans economic growth slows. With rising economic wealth comes rising expectations, says McGlinchey. What happens when the price of oil drops below $60 a barrel?

Without the opportunity to participate inside the political system, this new elite, along with frustrated members of the current ruling class, will likely challenge the power structure, and Kazakhstan may soon find itself in a position similar to that of neighboring Uzbekistan and Kirgizstan. Both countries face mounting unrest from populations locked out of the political system and unaffected by the economic windfall. In May 2005, an insurrection in the Uzbek province of Andijan was brutally repressed. Disgruntled opposition forces in Kirgistan threw out the government last March.

What makes Kazakhstans tilt toward autocracy particularly troubling is the countrys strong potential for development and liberalization. The country is resource-rich andby regional standards, in any caseprogressive. However flawed, Kazakhstans election was among the fairest ever held in the region, and it showed significant improvement over past elections in the country. Nazarbayev promised democratic reforms shortly after his victory and, after some prompting from President Bush, pledged to investigate allegations of election fraud. It is now critical that he follow through with that promise and build a liberal system that can grow along with the economy, instead of one designed to keep the Nazarbayev family in power.

Russia, eager to keep the reform bug in check, wants to assure Nazarbayev that all is well. Moscow maintains that there were no serious electoral violations and has criticized Western observers who claimed otherwise. Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the first to congratulate Nazarbayev, and he attended his inauguration in person. Kazakhstan runs the risk of catching this new Russian disease, where heavy-handed centralization and overbearing statism loom on the horizon, warns Fiona Hill of the Brookings Institution.

Events since the election suggest that Nazarbayev is happy to import Russias toxic political model. Last month, he initiated a prosecution of Bulat Abilov, one of the founders of the democratic opposition. On February 13, opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbaev turned up dead, with two bullet holes through his head. Nazarbayev has made a few tactical concessions to burnish his image, but even some of these have a hint of menace. On January 14, the government freed jailed opposition figure Galymzhan Zhakiyanov after three years in prison. The dissident emerged offering cautious praise for Nazarbayevs regime, leading to speculation hed been cowed into silence.

Indeed, Kazakhstan is willing to do just about anything to gain international acceptance, short of genuine reform. Its a dangerous game. Reform that comes abruptly, rather than gradually, will be bad news for the Nazarbayev clan and will have consequences that reach well beyond Central Asia. Kazakhstan is fast emerging as a major oil-producing country and is already a strategic alternative to troubled OPEC countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Its in everyones interest to see it develop a 21st-century political system.