Leaving Burma

ASEAN’s special envoy got back from Burma this week. It was basically a pointless excercise — the junta didn’t let him see Aung San Suu Kyi. Today, the French section of Doctors Without Borders decided to leave Burma: "MSF has left because of unacceptable conditions imposed by the authorities on how to provide relief to ...

ASEAN's special envoy got back from Burma this week. It was basically a pointless excercise -- the junta didn't let him see Aung San Suu Kyi. Today, the French section of Doctors Without Borders decided to leave Burma: "MSF has left because of unacceptable conditions imposed by the authorities on how to provide relief to people living in war-affected areas." By dissident accounts, things are bad.

ASEAN’s special envoy got back from Burma this week. It was basically a pointless excercise — the junta didn’t let him see Aung San Suu Kyi. Today, the French section of Doctors Without Borders decided to leave Burma: "MSF has left because of unacceptable conditions imposed by the authorities on how to provide relief to people living in war-affected areas." By dissident accounts, things are bad.

So things are not looking up for Burma. Not exactly a newsflash, but bear with me here, I have a point: It’s now clear that Burma’s future depends on India and China, not Washington.

China is Burma’s patron. It’s big brother if you will. India — which supported the democracy movement there for a long time — has embraced the regime in the hope that it can wean it off of Beijing’s funding and get some fossil fuels out of it too. Indian President APJ Abdul Kalam just had a dandy time in Burma’s new capital earlier this month and signed a natural gas deal while he was there. China signed one with Burma last year.

So both China and India are wooing the junta’s generals while a lot of less influential countries in the region are trying to get some kind of reform process moving. Under those conditions, nothing is going to budge.

The good news? Condi understands. She testified in the House on the issue this week:

Rice urged China and India on Tuesday to put more pressure on Myanmar’s military junta over its poor human rights record.

Rice also said that countries in the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) should do more to push for freedom in its fellow member, formerly known as Burma.

"We need China to be more active on this front … and India as well," Rice told the Senate Appropriations Committee. "Burma is one of the very worst regimes in the world."

Rice said she brought up Myanmar at every meeting she had with officials from China and India, adding that President George W. Bush did the same.

"We have to continue to encourage countries in the region to take an active and more public line on Burma. And outside of the region, places like Europe can make a difference," Rice said.

The question that remains is — how much more can she do about this "outpost of tyranny?" My guess is not much. With her plate overloaded with generous helpings of Iraq and Iran, chances are New Delhi and Beijing can happily go about their coddling ways without too much complaining from the Bush administration.

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