Tyrants waiting in vain

The NYT's Hassan Fattah in "Arab Democracy, a U.S. Goal, Falters": Analysts and officials say the political rise of Islamists, the chaos in Iraq, the newfound Shiite power in Iraq with its implication for growing Iranian influence, and the sense among some rulers that they can wait out the end of the Bush administration have ...

The NYT's Hassan Fattah in "Arab Democracy, a U.S. Goal, Falters":

The NYT's Hassan Fattah in "Arab Democracy, a U.S. Goal, Falters":

Analysts and officials say the political rise of Islamists, the chaos in Iraq, the newfound Shiite power in Iraq with its implication for growing Iranian influence, and the sense among some rulers that they can wait out the end of the Bush administration have put the brakes on democratization.

"Falter" means to "stumble" or "to walk unsteadily." It'll take many years for Middle East democracy to develop and eventually flourish, and there will be setbacks along the way, to be sure. So the fact that there's some faltering shouldn't faze anyone.

What bothers me the most is when I read of repressive governments warming to the idea of "waiting out Bush." It's a silly notion. If I were an astute advisor to any of the governments mentioned in the story — Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, etc — I would worry that the next U.S. president will be more effective at pushing for reform, not less. Other presidents will not have the baggage that Bush does. But they will have the same inclination toward reform even if they don't have the same willingness (or capability) to strike with military force.

Bush is a unique president, but 9/11 also changed U.S. foreign policy across the board. It instilled the idea that what happens within each repressive country matters to America. That won't change when Bush is gone, even if we don't have another nasty reminder in the form of a terrorist attack.

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.