Morning brief, April 13

A quiet day for Iraq news. The WaPo looks at Condi's trip to Iraq earlier this month and sees it as a possible turning point in winning more support from the Sunni parties.

Nigeria 

Yep, you read that correctly. It's so important it gets its own section today. As dealing with Iran requires more and more Advil, it is Nigeria where we may be able to find relief on oil prices. Resource Investor explains (emphasis mine):

Not only are militants in the Niger Delta a source of concern, growing ethnic and religious tension throughout the country could lead to a total stand-still. The Nigerian government has already put into place several military contingency plans to counter a possible military confrontation with the different militant groups in the Delta region….

The fact that Nigeria has become one of the main oil exporters to the U.S. and several European markets could be a main issue of concern. To counter a potential gap in supply of 2.5 million bpd in a market of constraint would be impossible. No other third party supply will be able to counter this, resulting in exponentially high crude oil price increases.

The country is scheduled to hold elections next year, and President Obasanjo's two terms are up. But the Nigerian parliament is debating a new law that will allow a third term.

If you're not familiar with the Niger Delta problem: the locals of the region haven't seen enough of the benefits of their oil wealth. There's a rebel group that targets oil infrastructure and personnel (BBC photo essay). John Robb points out that these rebels have the power to determine world oil prices — a "Shadow OPEC" if you will.

Here I tip my hat to the Atlantic Monthly. They nailed the timing of Jeffrey Taylor's insightful look at Nigeria in the April issue (which came out in March):

Obasanjo has shown scant appetite for tackling the crime, neglect, and inefficiency rampant in the oil sector. "Bunkering"—tapping into pipelines and siphoning oil into makeshift tankers hidden in the swamps of the Niger River Delta—is widespread; it is responsible for the loss of some 200,000 barrels a day and for catastrophic fires that have incinerated locals attempting to scoop up the runoff. Criminal gangs with government connections are said to be behind the practice—who else could hire the needed equipment? 

Iran

Let's clear things up. Iran says it's working toward getting 54,000 centerfuges up and enriching uranium. Right now it has 164. If it eventually hit the 54 K mark, it could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb in 16 days. But most analysts would remind: "It took Tehran 21 years of planning and 7 years of sporadic experiments, mostly in secret, to reach its current ability to link 164 spinning centrifuges in what nuclear experts call a cascade."

Mark Helperin wants to get imaginative about Iran in the WaPo:

[I]t could deter American intervention, reign over the Persian Gulf, further separate Europe from American Middle East policy, correct a nuclear imbalance with Pakistan, lead and perhaps unify the Islamic world, and thus create the chance to end Western dominance of the Middle East and/or with a single shot destroy Israel.

Elsewhere

Planning a road trip? Do the math. Gasoline inventories are down 2 percent from this time last year, while U.S. demand for gasoline is up 1.2 percent.

An opening for Islamists in Jordan?

In Italy, "Mr. Prodi will have two years to make the urgent economic reforms the country badly needs to compete in the global economy."

French Muslim novelist in the NYT: "France lives today, more than ever, in a utopian fantasy. The gap between the political leadership and the people is enormous. The elites seem to speak to us of outdated concepts, far, very far from reality."

Ramez Maluf notes that the Arab media never bothered to ask how the Danish cartoon episode materialized.