Nigerian turmoil

The Nigeria links this morning were meant to underscore the possibility that turmoil in Nigeria could send oil prices soaring. The post prompted a very welcome email from my friend Elisha Sulai, a former Foreign Policy researcher from Nigeria, who is now a grad student in London. He offers these insights:  Yesterday I attended an ...

The Nigeria links this morning were meant to underscore the possibility that turmoil in Nigeria could send oil prices soaring. The post prompted a very welcome email from my friend Elisha Sulai, a former Foreign Policy researcher from Nigeria, who is now a grad student in London. He offers these insights: 

The Nigeria links this morning were meant to underscore the possibility that turmoil in Nigeria could send oil prices soaring. The post prompted a very welcome email from my friend Elisha Sulai, a former Foreign Policy researcher from Nigeria, who is now a grad student in London. He offers these insights: 

Yesterday I attended an event on Nigeria at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. What I heard from the "experts" was clearly in line with what you've blogged on. The debate on the proposed constitutional amendment to let Obasanjo run again will start after Easter. For the amendment to pass it needs two-thirds of the Senate, two-thirds of the House of Reps and 24 of 36 states. The question now is: what if the Senate and the House approve and 24 states refuse? Will the "third termers" back down?

One of the experts who spoke doesn't think any one is ready to give up. He fears that President Obasanjo will still push for staying on, perhaps even suspending the constitution to fulfill his objective. This might be dangerous because the Northerners won't stand for it. Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a northerner is insisting that he's running for the Presidency. So is Buba Marwa, another northerner and former military governor of Lagos. IBB is also reportedly against the third term. He also said he might run. The Niger Deltans probably won't stand for a third term either. Hence things are "only going to get worse," I heard. We're approaching "crunch" time in Nigeria, where a coup, which was hitherto inconceivable might now be a possibility.

Is Nigeria finished then? I'm scared that the violence in the Delta, tensions up north between Hausa Muslims and Christian tribes, Igbo nationalism, and anger at Obasanjo might coalesce into one big war. This "perfect storm" might give the military an excuse to come back. Nigeria's democracy may be breathing it's last breath.

But if there's one thing I've learned about my country, it is never predict anything. Miracles happen. As one of the guys yesterday said, there could be a "coup from Allah," where the principles mysteriously die one after another. In 1998, Sani Abacha the tyrant died, paving the way for Obasanjo's election. Who knows what can happen now.

More from Foreign Policy

Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America

The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.
Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense

If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.
An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.