Morning brief, Monday April 17

"Sudan seems determined to extend its genocide to Chad, and the upshot is that the catastrophe of Darfur may now be multiplied manyfold."

Always nice to start the week with uplifting Nicholas Kristof analysis…And on a related note, global short-term oil supply is apparently so tight that Chad, of all countries, is using the oil weapon.

Iraq 

"I was an early supporter of the invasion to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Since 2003, my firsthand experiences in Iraq have shaken my faith in large-scale demonstrations of military power on land, but I cannot disavow my earlier support…" — Robert Kaplan in today's LAT.

Parliament session postponed because they can't agree on a prime minister. Jefferson Morley expains why it's taking so long…The NYT reports that some soldiers "can almost see Bosnia through the palm trees." 

Growing concern: "…whether Iraqis have the capacity to maintain, operate and protect the more than 8,000 reconstruction projects, costing $18.4 billion, that the United States has completed or plans to finish in the next few years…"

Rumsfeld

He has become a "past-tense man" according to David Brooks (Times Select):

If you just looked at his résumé, you might think he was the best person to lead the Pentagon in time of war, but in reality he was the worst because his whole life had misprepared him for what was to come. He was prepared to fight organizations. He was not prepared to fight enemies.

The Pentagon e-mailed a defense of Rumsfeld to a group of analysts and retired generals. A retired general somewhat defends Rummy in an NYT oped:

Ultimately, I believe that a tough defense secretary makes commanders tougher in their convictions. Was Donald Rumsfeld a micromanager? Yes. Did he want to be involved in all of the decisions? Yes. But Mr. Rumsfeld never told people in the field what to do. It all went through General Franks.

Richard Holbrooke: "Unless the secretary of defense is replaced, the policy will not and cannot change." All the Wall Street Journal wants to know is "when did Generals cease to be responsible for outcomes in war?"

Iran 

The prospect of a secret, black-market supplied program arises:

Western analysts long suspected that Iran had a second, secret program — based on the black market offerings of the renegade Pakistani nuclear engineerAbdul Qadeer Khan — separate from the activity at its main nuclear facility at Natanz. But they had no proof. Then on Thursday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Tehran was "presently conducting research" on the P-2 centrifuge, boasting that it would quadruple Iran's enrichment powers. 

"So how would bombing Iran serve American interests? In over a decade of looking at the question, no one has ever been able to provide a persuasive answer."

A comprehensive look at the war planning on Iran in the WaPo. Senators Lugar and Dodd say Washington should hold talks on nukes with Tehran.  

Iran pledges aid to Hamas-led Palestine. 

China

From the policy world's Oh-No-He-Didn't! department: "Sadly, when it comes to China, most Washington think tanks have stopped thinking." 

Hoagland on upcoming Hu Jintao visit to Washington: "China's new form of power is real. But it is also more fragile than Hu will want to show here this week. That is a reality that neither Hu nor Bush can afford to neglect at the summit."

There's an opening this week to push for change in China, argue Elizabeth Economy and Adam Segal. 

Elsewhere 

Afghans, Americans and Canadians together kill dozens of Taliban rebels, but civilians were killed during the clash as well, and the U.S. military is investigating those deaths…Mikhail Kodorkovsky gets slashed in the face at his Russian prison. Ouch…No longer surprising, but still notable: An environmentalist embraces nuclear energy…