Morning brief, Tuesday April 18

"If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 [per barrel] oil, no problem." Does that make you feel a bit better about crossing the $70 mark yesterday?  Iraq Troops seal off Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad to contain violence… Shiite leaders back Jaafari, so the standoff over who will ...

"If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 [per barrel] oil, no problem." Does that make you feel a bit better about crossing the $70 mark yesterday? 

"If the markets could behave like a rational entity we would already be at $80 [per barrel] oil, no problem." Does that make you feel a bit better about crossing the $70 mark yesterday? 

Iraq

Troops seal off Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad to contain violence… Shiite leaders back Jaafari, so the standoff over who will be prime minister continues. Iraqis are now less interseted in watching the Saddam trial and more interested in watching the political train wreck/soap opera.   

En garde! Rumsfeld says he will outlast his detractors: "There's always two sides to these things, and the sharper the criticism comes, sometimes the sharper the defense comes from people who don't agree with the critics."

LAT: both the critics and the defenders of Rumsfeld agree that Iraq is going badly. 

U.S. inaction led to the rise of militias, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. 

Iran

The April 30th Security Council deadline approaches. Fred Kaplan makes the case for negotiation:

Bush should commence direct talks with Iran not because they offer a hopeful chance for peace and good will, but because they're a necessary prelude to an international campaign of economic pressure—and because more drastic military pressure would likely backfire. There are two likely outcomes from serious American efforts to negotiate, both good. First, if Iran cooperates with the talks, then it might suspend its nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits. Second, if Iran doesn't cooperate, then the Bush administration will have made its case to China, Russia, and Europe that the regime is dangerous and untrustworthy. At that point it will be much easier to impose the economic sanctions that will scare the Iranians into better behavior.

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed: If Iran gets nukes, Saudi Arabia will have no choice, really.

Elsewhere 

Israel says that it holds Hamas responsible for Monday's suicide bombing, but it will not retaliate. The episode has inspired the age-old question to be re-asked: What to do with Hamas?

Russia and China would block UN sanctions against Sudanese officials involved with Darfur. 

A sandstorm covers Beijing with thick, yellow dust… Nepal is still a messSami al-Arian, a former professor on trial in Florida for helping terrorists, will be deported as part of a deal with federal prosecutors. 

A message for Israeli hippies who spend too much time in India: "Not everything dressed in loose, white clothing, relaxing and smoking grass is positive, pure and full of positive energies. And not everything that worked wonderfully in India can work here."

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