So I’m thinking Doha is dead

This morning George W. Bush announced a new director of the Office of Management and Budget: President Bush today selected U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman to be the new director of the Office of Management and Budget, moving quickly to revamp his team now that his new chief of staff is in place.... Bush, at a morning announcement at the White House, said Portman would "have a leading roll on my economic team." As Portman's replacement as trade representative, Bush chose deputy trade representative Susan Schwab, a veteran from the administration of George H.W. Bush who has also worked in the private sector for Motorola, among other companies. Schwab was president and chief executive officer of University System of Maryland Foundation before joining the current Bush administration. Here's a link to the transcript of the announcement. Portman has done an excellent job at USTR for the brief time he was there, and his move to OMB might be, on the whole, a good thing for fiscal policy. That said, Bush and Bolten have decided to switch teams at USTR in the weeks before various deadlines for the Doha round of trade talks come up. This is a bad, bad sign for the likelihood of those negotiations to succeed. UPDATE: Many commenters point out that Schwab will likely preserve continuity on trade talks. This may be true, but the optics look very bad to other countries and to Congress. Two FT reports -- one by Alan Beattie and one by Caroline Daniel -- make this point. Beattie first: Rob Portman?s unexpected removal from the post of US trade representative on Tuesday evoked concern among governments and trade experts that the US was downgrading the importance of the so-called ?Doha round? of World Trade Organisation talks.... Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, issued a barbed statement that qualified praise of Mr Portman and Susan Schwab, currently deputy trade representative and Mr Portman?s nominated replacement, with implied criticism about the timing of the move. ?I have very much enjoyed working with Rob Portman and I shall be sorry to see him go from this post,? Mr Mandelson said. ?We will of course manage without him, but at this stage in the round, it would have been easier to manage with him.? Privately, other EU officials were less diplomatic, suggesting that the move sent out a clear signal that the US regarded the Doha round as dispensable. ?On the face of it, this looks like bad news for the talks at a time when negotiations are at a fragile point and it is bound to lead to further uncertainty,? one official said. The official said that the one bright spot could be that the US would use the change of personnel as cover to moderate its demands for wholesale farm liberalisation in the Doha round.... Lobbyists and trade experts in Washington said that Ms Schwab was technically very well qualified to succeed Mr Portman. But several said that although she had good contacts on Capitol Hill, she would not enter the job with the same political influence as her predecessor.... Tom Buis, president of the National Farmers Union, said: ?To me it sends a signal that things aren?t moving as smoothly as anticipated on the trade deal. It may be a realisation that Doha is not going to be the success that the administration hoped it would be.? The European carping should be taken with a small grain of salt -- they'll jump on any excuse to evade blame for Doha collapsing. Now Daniel: The US on Tuesday named Rob Portman, the politically savvy trade representative, to head the White House budget office, a move that signals growing concern over runaway federal spending and a downgrading of trade policy in the administration?s second term.... ?There is an awful lot of negativism now about the prospect of trade liberalisation and a backsliding on trade,? a leading Republican strategist confirmed. ?There is a sense of giving up on bilateral trade deals and on Doha.? Clay Shaw, a Florida Republican and chairman of the House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, told Congress Daily: ?If the Doha round is doomed for failure ... this may be a case of looking for where [Portman?s] talents, which are extraordinary, can best be used.?