The post-Iraq mindset: temporary containment

Clausewitz not withstanding, Edward N. Luttwak wrote the book on strategy. “Crazy Eddie,” as some who know him call him, has an excellent article in the forthcoming May issue of Commentary, “Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran — Yet.” It’s a call for temporary containment, based on the assumption that the regime in Tehran is burning itself out.

[T]here is no reason to attack prematurely, because there will be ample time to do so before it is too late—that is, before enough fissile material has been produced for one bomb.”

Might as well carve those words into the headstone sitting atop the Bush Doctrine’s grave. This is the new, dominant post-Iraq mindset.

There is thus no indication that the regime will fall before it acquires nuclear weapons. Yet, because there is still time, it is not irresponsible to hope that it will.”

Critics will accuse Luttwak of underestimating the regime’s staying power. The Drez, for one, already has. But, given that we are looking at a nuclear time table in Iran that is somewhere on the order of five to 10 years, Luttwak’s call for reasoned restraint seems, well, reasonable.