Flip but don’t flop

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are taking a page from the George W. Bush/Karl Rove playbook in their attempt to defeat the new Tory leader David Cameron. Labour’s local election broadcast tries to paint Cameron as a John Kerry-style flip flopper. In the video, Cameron is depicted as a chameleon who will change any position ...

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are taking a page from the George W. Bush/Karl Rove playbook in their attempt to defeat the new Tory leader David Cameron. Labour’s local election broadcast tries to paint Cameron as a John Kerry-style flip flopper. In the video, Cameron is depicted as a chameleon who will change any position and say anything to win people’s votes.

It was effective in the 2004 U.S. election. But in this case, this dog won’t hunt. Yes, Cameron has shifted Tory positions on some issues and changed the emphasis on countless others. But there's a big difference. Unlike John Kerry, Cameron hasn’t changed them back.

Voters are fine with politicians changing their minds, flipping. It would be a very odd individual who went through his life without changing their views on anything. As John Maynard  Keynes said “When the facts change, I change my mind.”  The electorate does smell a rat when candidates flop back to their original position. So, as long as Cameron holds his modernizing nerve this kind of attack isn’t going to hurt him. Indeed, Labour might even be offering him a helping hand by emphasizing to voters that the Tories have changed.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are taking a page from the George W. Bush/Karl Rove playbook in their attempt to defeat the new Tory leader David Cameron. Labour’s local election broadcast tries to paint Cameron as a John Kerry-style flip flopper. In the video, Cameron is depicted as a chameleon who will change any position and say anything to win people’s votes.

It was effective in the 2004 U.S. election. But in this case, this dog won’t hunt. Yes, Cameron has shifted Tory positions on some issues and changed the emphasis on countless others. But there's a big difference. Unlike John Kerry, Cameron hasn’t changed them back.

Voters are fine with politicians changing their minds, flipping. It would be a very odd individual who went through his life without changing their views on anything. As John Maynard  Keynes said “When the facts change, I change my mind.”  The electorate does smell a rat when candidates flop back to their original position. So, as long as Cameron holds his modernizing nerve this kind of attack isn’t going to hurt him. Indeed, Labour might even be offering him a helping hand by emphasizing to voters that the Tories have changed.

James Forsyth is assistant editor at Foreign Policy.

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