Seven Questions: Turmoil in Nepal

Foreign Policy: How widespread were recent protests?

Kunda Dixit: The protests [were] nationwide and an unprecedented show of people power. In Katmandu, we have seen up to 200,000 people on the Ring Road, and in towns across Nepal there are 50,000-100,000 in each place. The most vocal participants are young students, but more ordinary folks are spontaneously pouring into the streets. Civil servants have come out. There are doctors, journalists, businessmen, and even employees of the Ministry of Interior.

But after nearly three weeks of curfews and highway blockades, fresh food is running low and prices have gone up. Schools, offices, and banks are closed. Despite all this, there is a great feeling of anticipation and excitement that great political change is imminent. Everyone is hoping there will be a restoration of democracy as a stepping stone to peace. Something snapped in the people. They stopped being apathetic.

FP: Why have the Maoists and opposition parties joined in an alliance against the monarchy? Don’t they have different aims?

KD: In December, the Maoists and the seven-party alliance agreed to work together to oppose the king. It was unusual because the Maoists believe in armed struggle and the political parties dont, but they thought they could reinforce each other. The parties gain clout and the Maoists get some degree of legitimacy from the alliance. It is a marriage of convenience.

FP: How significant is the Maoist cease-fire?

KD: The Maoists havent formally declared a cease-fire, but they have said they wont take any offensive action in the capital for the duration of the street agitation by the parties. Both the Maoists and the parties dont want the royal regime to use Maoist violence as an excuse to treat party activists as terrorists. It must be said that what the parties have achieved with 18 days of protests, the Maoists didnt achieve with 10 years of conflict and 14,000 lives lost.

FP: Do the Maoists enjoy genuine support around the country?

KD: Their revolution started out well. But in the past few years, there have been signs that, in many places, their support comes from fear. The forced recruitment of children and the extortion of teachers, farmers, and traders have cost them a lot of support. Still, a nationwide public opinion poll our newspaper did last month showed that the Maoists would be the third biggest party in parliament if they renounced violence and ran in elections.

But the insurgency has ruined the country. Investment is down to zero, tourism has been badly affected, and the economy is in ruins. Hundreds of thousands of people are internally displaced. There is great bereavement and misery. Even without the conflict, Nepals health and education were the poorest in the region, and the war just made everything much worse.

FP: Would the king ever step down? What’s the position of the army and military police?

KD: The king must by now have seen the writing on the wall. If he doesnt settle for a ceremonial role, there is no place for him or his dynasty in the future of Nepal.

The army brass is still loyal to the king because the history of the army and the Shah kings are intertwined with the formation of Nepal. But there are grumblings in the rank and file. The more intelligent generals are convinced there is no military solution to the Maoist issue.

FP: How have countries in the region reacted? It has been reported that India is experiencing its own wave of Maoist-inspired rebels, especially in the eastern and central districts of the country.

KD: Luckily for us, the international community isnt fighting a turf war in Nepal. Everyone agrees that restoring democracy with a constitutional monarchy in Nepal will ensure stability and peace. India is concerned about the spillover of the Maoist insurgency and also about refugees streaming across the border. The Maoists here in Nepal may have gotten their name from the Great Helmsman, but the Chinese want nothing to do with them. Bhutan doesnt figure in, except that it has its own problems with international pressure to take back the one sixth of its population that was evicted in 1990100,000 Bhutani refugees have been living in camps in Nepal for the past 16 years.

FP: Will the opposition parties and the Maoists continue to be aligned, or do you envision a power struggle?

KD: There are two schools of thought. One is that the Maoists can never be trusted and everything they do is a ploy to capture state power. The other is that they are genuinely interested in peace. The parties idea is that parliament could make a provision for constituent assembly elections and by that time the Maoists would renounce violence and become a mainstream party. But that’s a bit too much crystal gazing for me now.