What is so special about gas prices?
Brad DeLong provides the most concise and correct analysis of the political economy of gas prices I’ve ever seen: Democrats are (because of the environmentalist wing of the party) generally in favor of higher gasoline taxes and higher gasoline prices–except when gasoline prices are high). Republicans are in favor of letting oil markets “work”–except when ...
Brad DeLong provides the most concise and correct analysis of the political economy of gas prices I've ever seen: Democrats are (because of the environmentalist wing of the party) generally in favor of higher gasoline taxes and higher gasoline prices--except when gasoline prices are high). Republicans are in favor of letting oil markets "work"--except when gasoline prices are high. The interesting question is why this is true. As Nick Shultz points out in Forbes, energy is an increasingly less important component to the American consumer (link via Glenn Reynolds): According to the Bureau of Economic Affairs (see chart here), American consumer spending on energy as a fraction of total personal consumption has declined considerably since 1980. Whereas 25 years ago, one in every ten consumer dollars was spent on energy, today it's one in every 16. In other words, what it takes to heat and cool our homes and drive to and from our jobs and vacation destinations is relatively less costly than it was then. This goes a long way toward explaining why even when gas prices rise this summer--higher than they were throughout the 1990s--people will still be driving more; it's much more of a value than it was a generation ago. What's more, so-called energy intensity is declining rapidly. That means we produce more with less energy. According to Economy.com, "The U.S. economy has undergone major structural changes over the last two decades, becoming more energy efficient, thus reducing its overall dependence on energy. ? The energy intensity of the U.S. economy has declined by roughly 40% since the first oil crisis (as of 2001)." Furthermore, as Virginia Postrel pointed out ten years ago, when the price of other commodities spike up, no one talks about it being a crisis: The government interventions that distorted energy markets in the 1970s, and put drivers through hell, have disappeared. This crisis isn't a crisis. It's just a price increase, the sort of signal consumers adjust to every day. No hysteria is called for. So, here's my question to readers... why is a spike in gas prices considered such a political crisis? [You're the political scientist... why don't you have an explanation?--ed.] I have one, but it's a bit loopy: gasoline is a unique commodity in three ways. First, it's tied into the politics of the Middle East, which allows media coverage to always give it that extra political twist... though during the Cold War, the only sources for platinum were the Soviet Union and South Africa, but no one fretted about the political implications. Second, oil is one of the few commodities that's subjected to a supplier cartel... though I don't hear anyone besides myself complain about, say, the diamond cartel. Third (and by far the loopiest), gasoline is the one commodity in which Americans of both genders possess close to full information. It's therefore the one commodity that might mobilize the mass public into seeking a political solution. I place very little confidence in my explanation, however: readers are welcomed to chime in. UPDATE: Megan McArdle weighs in with her thoughts, which match the commentators' point about the short-term price inelasticity of demand. While true, it avoids the point Schultz makes, which is that as a percentage of income, the current price spike is less traumatic than what happened thirty years ago. So why the immediate political response? The best answer might be that whatever is being proposed now is still less intervenionist than what happened in the seventies (even/odd days, anyone).
Brad DeLong provides the most concise and correct analysis of the political economy of gas prices I’ve ever seen:
Democrats are (because of the environmentalist wing of the party) generally in favor of higher gasoline taxes and higher gasoline prices–except when gasoline prices are high). Republicans are in favor of letting oil markets “work”–except when gasoline prices are high.
The interesting question is why this is true. As Nick Shultz points out in Forbes, energy is an increasingly less important component to the American consumer (link via Glenn Reynolds):
According to the Bureau of Economic Affairs (see chart here), American consumer spending on energy as a fraction of total personal consumption has declined considerably since 1980. Whereas 25 years ago, one in every ten consumer dollars was spent on energy, today it’s one in every 16. In other words, what it takes to heat and cool our homes and drive to and from our jobs and vacation destinations is relatively less costly than it was then. This goes a long way toward explaining why even when gas prices rise this summer–higher than they were throughout the 1990s–people will still be driving more; it’s much more of a value than it was a generation ago. What’s more, so-called energy intensity is declining rapidly. That means we produce more with less energy. According to Economy.com, “The U.S. economy has undergone major structural changes over the last two decades, becoming more energy efficient, thus reducing its overall dependence on energy. ? The energy intensity of the U.S. economy has declined by roughly 40% since the first oil crisis (as of 2001).”
Furthermore, as Virginia Postrel pointed out ten years ago, when the price of other commodities spike up, no one talks about it being a crisis:
The government interventions that distorted energy markets in the 1970s, and put drivers through hell, have disappeared. This crisis isn’t a crisis. It’s just a price increase, the sort of signal consumers adjust to every day. No hysteria is called for.
So, here’s my question to readers… why is a spike in gas prices considered such a political crisis? [You’re the political scientist… why don’t you have an explanation?–ed.] I have one, but it’s a bit loopy: gasoline is a unique commodity in three ways. First, it’s tied into the politics of the Middle East, which allows media coverage to always give it that extra political twist… though during the Cold War, the only sources for platinum were the Soviet Union and South Africa, but no one fretted about the political implications. Second, oil is one of the few commodities that’s subjected to a supplier cartel… though I don’t hear anyone besides myself complain about, say, the diamond cartel. Third (and by far the loopiest), gasoline is the one commodity in which Americans of both genders possess close to full information. It’s therefore the one commodity that might mobilize the mass public into seeking a political solution. I place very little confidence in my explanation, however: readers are welcomed to chime in. UPDATE: Megan McArdle weighs in with her thoughts, which match the commentators’ point about the short-term price inelasticity of demand. While true, it avoids the point Schultz makes, which is that as a percentage of income, the current price spike is less traumatic than what happened thirty years ago. So why the immediate political response? The best answer might be that whatever is being proposed now is still less intervenionist than what happened in the seventies (even/odd days, anyone).
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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