Oil as a dictatorship dividend
Max Boot’s column in the Los Angeles Times hits at something that’s been nagging at me but I had not been able to fully articulate: Of the top 14 oil exporters, only one is a well-established liberal democracy ? Norway. Two others have recently made a transition to democracy ? Mexico and Nigeria. Iraq is ...
Max Boot's column in the Los Angeles Times hits at something that's been nagging at me but I had not been able to fully articulate: Of the top 14 oil exporters, only one is a well-established liberal democracy ? Norway. Two others have recently made a transition to democracy ? Mexico and Nigeria. Iraq is trying to follow in their footsteps. That's it. Every other major oil exporter is a dictatorship ? and the run-up in oil prices has been a tremendous boon to them. My associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, Ian Cornwall, calculates that if oil averages $71 a barrel this year, 10 autocracies stand to make about $500 billion more than in 2003, when oil was at $27. This windfall helps to squelch liberal forces and entrench noxious dictators in such oil producers as Russia (which stands to make $115 billion more this year than in 2003) and Venezuela ($36 billion). Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez can buy off their publics with generous subsidies and ignore Western pressure while sabotaging democratic developments from Central America to Central Asia. The "dictatorship dividend" also subsidizes Sudan's ethnic cleansing (it stands to earn $4.7 billion more this year than in 2003), Iran's development of nuclear weapons ($45 billion) and Saudi Arabia's proselytization for Wahhabi fundamentalism ($149 billion). Even in such close American allies as Kuwait ($35 billion) and the United Arab Emirates ($36 billion), odds are that some of the extra lucre will find its way into the pockets of terrorists. In short, although high oil prices may not be a cause for economic panic, they do represent a big strategic headache ? and one that requires a serious governmental response. But what? Most of the "solutions" being debated in Washington, such as sending taxpayers a $100 rebate or imposing a windfall profits tax on oil companies, would do nothing to address the crux of the problem: How do we defund the dictators?Read the rest of Boot's column to see his suggestions. I'll take others from readers.
Max Boot’s column in the Los Angeles Times hits at something that’s been nagging at me but I had not been able to fully articulate:
Of the top 14 oil exporters, only one is a well-established liberal democracy ? Norway. Two others have recently made a transition to democracy ? Mexico and Nigeria. Iraq is trying to follow in their footsteps. That’s it. Every other major oil exporter is a dictatorship ? and the run-up in oil prices has been a tremendous boon to them. My associate at the Council on Foreign Relations, Ian Cornwall, calculates that if oil averages $71 a barrel this year, 10 autocracies stand to make about $500 billion more than in 2003, when oil was at $27. This windfall helps to squelch liberal forces and entrench noxious dictators in such oil producers as Russia (which stands to make $115 billion more this year than in 2003) and Venezuela ($36 billion). Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez can buy off their publics with generous subsidies and ignore Western pressure while sabotaging democratic developments from Central America to Central Asia. The “dictatorship dividend” also subsidizes Sudan’s ethnic cleansing (it stands to earn $4.7 billion more this year than in 2003), Iran’s development of nuclear weapons ($45 billion) and Saudi Arabia’s proselytization for Wahhabi fundamentalism ($149 billion). Even in such close American allies as Kuwait ($35 billion) and the United Arab Emirates ($36 billion), odds are that some of the extra lucre will find its way into the pockets of terrorists. In short, although high oil prices may not be a cause for economic panic, they do represent a big strategic headache ? and one that requires a serious governmental response. But what? Most of the “solutions” being debated in Washington, such as sending taxpayers a $100 rebate or imposing a windfall profits tax on oil companies, would do nothing to address the crux of the problem: How do we defund the dictators?
Read the rest of Boot’s column to see his suggestions. I’ll take others from readers.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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