How low can Bush go?
I don’t like kicking a man when he’s down, but the latest poll numbers have the hard-working staff here at danieldrezner.com debating among themselves: how low can Bush’s poll numbers go? Consider the latest Harris/WSJ Online poll numbers: Of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 29% think Mr. Bush is doing an “excellent ...
I don't like kicking a man when he's down, but the latest poll numbers have the hard-working staff here at danieldrezner.com debating among themselves: how low can Bush's poll numbers go? Consider the latest Harris/WSJ Online poll numbers: Of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 29% think Mr. Bush is doing an "excellent or pretty good" job as president, down from 35% in April and significantly lower than 43% in January. It compares with 71% of Americans who said Mr. Bush is doing an "only fair or poor" job, up from 63% in April. Meanwhile, approval ratings for Congress are also sliding, as 18% of Americans say Congress is doing an "excellent or pretty good job," compared with 80% who say Congress is doing an "only fair or poor" job. In February, 25% of Americans gave Congress a positive rating and 71% gave a negative rating. Elsewhere, roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults say "things in the country are going in the right direction," while 69% say "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." This trend has declined every month since January, when 33% said the nation was heading in the right direction. Then there's this bit from CNN's poll: In a new poll comparing President Bush's job performance with that of his predecessor, a strong majority of respondents said President Clinton outperformed Bush on a host of issues. The poll of 1,021 adult Americans was conducted May 5-7 by Opinion Research Corp. for CNN. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents favored Clinton by greater than 2-to-1 margins when asked who did a better job at handling the economy (63 percent Clinton, 26 percent Bush) and solving the problems of ordinary Americans (62 percent Clinton, 25 percent Bush).... When asked which man was more honest as president, poll respondents were more evenly divided, with the numbers -- 46 percent Clinton to 41 percent Bush -- falling within the poll's margin of error. The fact that Clinton is even in the ballpark on this last question has got to depress the White House staff. So, question to readers: how low can Bush's poll numbers go? Previous predictions of bottoming out have not turned out well, so proceed with caution. UPDATE: Mystery Pollster points out that the recent NSA revelations will probably provide a slight boost to Bush's numbers: MP makes no predictions, but Bush can only stand to gain if the public's attention shifts from his handling of gas prices, the economy, immigration and Iraq to his administration's efforts to "investigate terrorism." The Post-ABC poll found that 51% approve (and 47% disapprove) of "the way Bush is handling Protecting Americans' privacy rights as the government investigates terrorism." That is "hardly a robust rating," as the ABC release puts it, "but one that's far better than his overall job approval, in the low 30s in recent polls."LAST UPDATE: Well, here's another poll where Clinton outperforms Bush -- but I think Bush would be happy with that.
I don’t like kicking a man when he’s down, but the latest poll numbers have the hard-working staff here at danieldrezner.com debating among themselves: how low can Bush’s poll numbers go? Consider the latest Harris/WSJ Online poll numbers:
Of 1,003 U.S. adults surveyed in a telephone poll, 29% think Mr. Bush is doing an “excellent or pretty good” job as president, down from 35% in April and significantly lower than 43% in January. It compares with 71% of Americans who said Mr. Bush is doing an “only fair or poor” job, up from 63% in April. Meanwhile, approval ratings for Congress are also sliding, as 18% of Americans say Congress is doing an “excellent or pretty good job,” compared with 80% who say Congress is doing an “only fair or poor” job. In February, 25% of Americans gave Congress a positive rating and 71% gave a negative rating. Elsewhere, roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults say “things in the country are going in the right direction,” while 69% say “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track.” This trend has declined every month since January, when 33% said the nation was heading in the right direction.
Then there’s this bit from CNN’s poll:
In a new poll comparing President Bush’s job performance with that of his predecessor, a strong majority of respondents said President Clinton outperformed Bush on a host of issues. The poll of 1,021 adult Americans was conducted May 5-7 by Opinion Research Corp. for CNN. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Respondents favored Clinton by greater than 2-to-1 margins when asked who did a better job at handling the economy (63 percent Clinton, 26 percent Bush) and solving the problems of ordinary Americans (62 percent Clinton, 25 percent Bush)…. When asked which man was more honest as president, poll respondents were more evenly divided, with the numbers — 46 percent Clinton to 41 percent Bush — falling within the poll’s margin of error.
The fact that Clinton is even in the ballpark on this last question has got to depress the White House staff. So, question to readers: how low can Bush’s poll numbers go? Previous predictions of bottoming out have not turned out well, so proceed with caution. UPDATE: Mystery Pollster points out that the recent NSA revelations will probably provide a slight boost to Bush’s numbers:
MP makes no predictions, but Bush can only stand to gain if the public’s attention shifts from his handling of gas prices, the economy, immigration and Iraq to his administration’s efforts to “investigate terrorism.” The Post-ABC poll found that 51% approve (and 47% disapprove) of “the way Bush is handling Protecting Americans’ privacy rights as the government investigates terrorism.” That is “hardly a robust rating,” as the ABC release puts it, “but one that’s far better than his overall job approval, in the low 30s in recent polls.”
LAST UPDATE: Well, here’s another poll where Clinton outperforms Bush — but I think Bush would be happy with that.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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