The Iraqi government kindly requests the withdrawl of (some) of your troops

To be frank, your guess about whether this new government of national unity in Iraq will succeed is as good as mine. What is certain is that it is the last best hope for something that could credibly be called success in Iraq. As one British official tells The Guardian today, "It will be a ...

To be frank, your guess about whether this new government of national unity in Iraq will succeed is as good as mine. What is certain is that it is the last best hope for something that could credibly be called success in Iraq. As one British official tells The Guardian today, "It will be a far cry from a beacon for democracy in the Middle East....But it will still be better than anything anywhere in the Middle East."

To be frank, your guess about whether this new government of national unity in Iraq will succeed is as good as mine. What is certain is that it is the last best hope for something that could credibly be called success in Iraq. As one British official tells The Guardian today, "It will be a far cry from a beacon for democracy in the Middle East….But it will still be better than anything anywhere in the Middle East."

I suspect that the press conference between Tony Blair and the Iraqi PM offered us a preview of how troop withdrawals will be handled. They will be presented as being at the request of the Iraqi government. This will enable Blair and George W. Bush to both avoid the charge that they are retreating and emphasize that a government has stood up in Iraq. Both leaders are desperate to avoid any impression of cutting and running, partly for political and historical reasons, but even more importantly because they know that the idea that Western nations flee under fire is a key part of bin Laden’s ideology.

On a far more parochial level, the formation of the Iraqi government also allows Blair to deliver the final part in his trilogy of foreign policy speeches. The first two were delivered in London and Canberra respectively and Blair has always wanted to deliver the final one in the United States. The first speech laid out Blair’s views that "This is not a clash between civilisations. It is a clash about civilisation" and defended his "strongly activist" foreign policy. The second one explained how to win the battle of ideas and the importance of resisting the temptation to become a closed society. The third speech, Downing Street tells us, will deal with "how international institutions need radical reform." The politically savvy thing for Blair to do would be to use this speech to make clear that it is on this issue that he parts way with the neo-cons.

James Forsyth is assistant editor at Foreign Policy.

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