Someone explain the hawks’ plans to me

As near as I can figure out, the Bush/Cheney line on Iran is that neither direct dialogue nor indirect dialogue is worth it. On the direct dialogue, it appears that the administration is ignoring Iran’s repeated entreaties for direct negotiations — at least, that’s what I gather from Karl Vick and Dafna Linzer’s front-pager in ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

As near as I can figure out, the Bush/Cheney line on Iran is that neither direct dialogue nor indirect dialogue is worth it. On the direct dialogue, it appears that the administration is ignoring Iran's repeated entreaties for direct negotiations -- at least, that's what I gather from Karl Vick and Dafna Linzer's front-pager in the Washington Post: Iran has followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent letter to President Bush with explicit requests for direct talks on its nuclear program, according to U.S. officials, Iranian analysts and foreign diplomats. The eagerness for talks demonstrates a profound change in Iran's political orthodoxy, emphatically erasing a taboo against contact with Washington that has both defined and confined Tehran's public foreign policy for more than a quarter-century, they said.... [Saeed] Laylaz and several diplomats said senior Iranian officials have asked a multitude of intermediaries to pass word to Washington making clear their appetite for direct talks. He said Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, passed that message to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, who arrived in Washington Tuesday for talks with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley. Iranian officials made similar requests through Indonesia, Kuwait and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, Laylaz said. American intelligence analysts also say Larijani's urgent requests for meetings with senior officials in France and Germany appear to be part of a bid for dialogue with Washington. "They've been desperate to do it," said a European diplomat in Tehran. U.S. intelligence analysts have assessed the letter as a major overture, an appraisal shared by analysts and foreign diplomats resident in Iran. Bush administration officials, however, have dismissed the offered opening as a tactical move. The administration repeatedly has rejected talks, saying Iran must negotiate with the three European powers that have led nuclear diplomacy since the Iranian nuclear program emerged from the shadows in 2002. Within hours of receiving Ahmadinejad's letter, Rice dismissed it as containing nothing new. But U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said government experts have exerted mounting pressure on the Bush administration to reply to the letter, seconding public urgings from commentators and former officials. "The content was wacky and, from an American point of view, offensive. But why should we cede the high moral ground, and why shouldn't we at least respond to the Iranian people?" said an official who has been pushing for a public response. On the indirect dialogue, Guy Dinmore and Daniel Dombey report in the Financial Times that U.S. hawks don't like the EU3 offering anything to Iran: Opposition by US ?hawks? led by Dick Cheney, the vice-president, is complicating efforts by the main European powers to put together an agreed package of incentives aimed at persuading Iran to suspend its nuclear fuel cycle programme, according to diplomats and analysts in Washington. London is hosting on Wednesday political directors of the ?EU3? of France, Germany and the UK, together with China, Russia and the US to look at the twin tools of incentives and sanctions. Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, was said by one diplomat to have ?gone out on a limb? in an attempt to back the EU3?s package of incentives but was facing resistance from Mr Cheney who is playing a more visible role in US foreign policy. Another diplomat said US internal divisions were holding up an agreement with the Europeans.... Mr Cheney is said to oppose the notion of ?rewarding bad behaviour? following Iran?s alleged breaches of its nuclear safeguards commitments. The hawks ? who include John Bolton, the US envoy to the UN, and Bob Joseph, a senior arms control official ? fear a repeat of a similar agreement reached with North Korea in 1994 which did not stop the communist regime from pursuing a secret weapons programme. The last point is a valid one -- the 1994 agreement with North Korea merely kicked the can down the road. Here's my question, though -- even if this skepticism is warranted, exactly what is the hawkish set of policy options on Iran? Is there any coercive policy instrument that is a) publicly viable; and b) would actually compel Iran into compliance without negotiations? If not, then why not negotiate? UPDATE: Some of the comments respond by telling me what the hawks want -- a non-nuclear Iran that undergoes a regime change. Hey, I want those things too -- and a free pony. This doesn't answer my question, though -- how, exactly, do the hawks plan on attaining these things? I don't think either economic or military coercion will work, unless there's Security Council backing. I don't think a unilateral invasion is publicly or militarily viable. Am I missing something? Why can we offer a peace treaty to North Korea but not talk to Iran? I've said it before and I'll say it again -- If the regime in Iran is willing to trade off its WMD program in return for the U.S. abstaining from an active policy of regime change, that's a deal worth making.

As near as I can figure out, the Bush/Cheney line on Iran is that neither direct dialogue nor indirect dialogue is worth it. On the direct dialogue, it appears that the administration is ignoring Iran’s repeated entreaties for direct negotiations — at least, that’s what I gather from Karl Vick and Dafna Linzer’s front-pager in the Washington Post:

Iran has followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent letter to President Bush with explicit requests for direct talks on its nuclear program, according to U.S. officials, Iranian analysts and foreign diplomats. The eagerness for talks demonstrates a profound change in Iran’s political orthodoxy, emphatically erasing a taboo against contact with Washington that has both defined and confined Tehran’s public foreign policy for more than a quarter-century, they said…. [Saeed] Laylaz and several diplomats said senior Iranian officials have asked a multitude of intermediaries to pass word to Washington making clear their appetite for direct talks. He said Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, passed that message to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, who arrived in Washington Tuesday for talks with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley. Iranian officials made similar requests through Indonesia, Kuwait and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, Laylaz said. American intelligence analysts also say Larijani’s urgent requests for meetings with senior officials in France and Germany appear to be part of a bid for dialogue with Washington. “They’ve been desperate to do it,” said a European diplomat in Tehran. U.S. intelligence analysts have assessed the letter as a major overture, an appraisal shared by analysts and foreign diplomats resident in Iran. Bush administration officials, however, have dismissed the offered opening as a tactical move. The administration repeatedly has rejected talks, saying Iran must negotiate with the three European powers that have led nuclear diplomacy since the Iranian nuclear program emerged from the shadows in 2002. Within hours of receiving Ahmadinejad’s letter, Rice dismissed it as containing nothing new. But U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity said government experts have exerted mounting pressure on the Bush administration to reply to the letter, seconding public urgings from commentators and former officials. “The content was wacky and, from an American point of view, offensive. But why should we cede the high moral ground, and why shouldn’t we at least respond to the Iranian people?” said an official who has been pushing for a public response.

On the indirect dialogue, Guy Dinmore and Daniel Dombey report in the Financial Times that U.S. hawks don’t like the EU3 offering anything to Iran:

Opposition by US ?hawks? led by Dick Cheney, the vice-president, is complicating efforts by the main European powers to put together an agreed package of incentives aimed at persuading Iran to suspend its nuclear fuel cycle programme, according to diplomats and analysts in Washington. London is hosting on Wednesday political directors of the ?EU3? of France, Germany and the UK, together with China, Russia and the US to look at the twin tools of incentives and sanctions. Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, was said by one diplomat to have ?gone out on a limb? in an attempt to back the EU3?s package of incentives but was facing resistance from Mr Cheney who is playing a more visible role in US foreign policy. Another diplomat said US internal divisions were holding up an agreement with the Europeans…. Mr Cheney is said to oppose the notion of ?rewarding bad behaviour? following Iran?s alleged breaches of its nuclear safeguards commitments. The hawks ? who include John Bolton, the US envoy to the UN, and Bob Joseph, a senior arms control official ? fear a repeat of a similar agreement reached with North Korea in 1994 which did not stop the communist regime from pursuing a secret weapons programme.

The last point is a valid one — the 1994 agreement with North Korea merely kicked the can down the road. Here’s my question, though — even if this skepticism is warranted, exactly what is the hawkish set of policy options on Iran? Is there any coercive policy instrument that is a) publicly viable; and b) would actually compel Iran into compliance without negotiations? If not, then why not negotiate? UPDATE: Some of the comments respond by telling me what the hawks want — a non-nuclear Iran that undergoes a regime change. Hey, I want those things too — and a free pony. This doesn’t answer my question, though — how, exactly, do the hawks plan on attaining these things? I don’t think either economic or military coercion will work, unless there’s Security Council backing. I don’t think a unilateral invasion is publicly or militarily viable. Am I missing something? Why can we offer a peace treaty to North Korea but not talk to Iran? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — If the regime in Iran is willing to trade off its WMD program in return for the U.S. abstaining from an active policy of regime change, that’s a deal worth making.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

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