Should you panic about North Korea or not?

North Korea apparently test-fired several missiles today. There are stories by both the New York Times staff and Dana Piest of the Washington Post. Whether North Korea’s actions are panic-worthy depend upon which story you read. The Times suggests panic:

North Korea shocked western and Japanese analysts in 1998 by firing a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan into the Pacific Ocean, revealing more advanced missile capabilities than the country was previously thought to possess. The Taepodong-2 missile is thought to be potentially capable of reaching United States territory in Alaska, if North Korea perfects the technology. But that ability has never been demonstrated in a test. In late June, North Korea disavowed its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests…. North Korea is believed to possess enough plutonium to build several nuclear warheads. The country has claimed since 2005 to have built nuclear weapons.

The Post offers a different perspective:

A senior State Department official said the test was “an affront to everybody, not just us” and that it would likely have a big effect on South Korean public opinion, which is already impatient with one-way flow of humanitarian assistance meant to induce the isolated North Korean leader to join the world community. The failure of diplomacy is also likely to embarrass China, which has sought a heightened role in calming tensions between North Korea and other countries. “The Chinese will be furious,” the diplomat said…. The Taepodong-2 is a multi-stage missile with a possible range of 3,500 to 4,300 km, meaning it could hit parts of Alaska. Most analysts agree North Korea is years away from building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a missile. Its medium and long-range missiles have displayed chronic problems with accuracy.

Put me between the Post and Times perspectives. I suspect that the South Koreans — who have been in denial about North Korea for some time — will find a way to rationalize the DPRK’s behavior, and that the Chinese won’t be that perturbed. The fact that financial markets are reacting to the test by selling off yen suggests that they are ratcheting up the probability of something bad happening. As Dan Nexon points out: “The US and Japan have made all sorts of dark threats about punitive action if North Korea went ahead with the launch. Now we have to step up to the plate or risk having had our bluff called.” At the same time, Priest is correct about the North Koreans being a ways away from being able to put a nuke on an ICBM. Plus, if you look at this map, you see that the United States is hardly the only country affected by North Korea’s actions.

Developing…. UPDATE: David Sanger has an excellent backgrounder in the New York Times about why all of the policy options available to the Bush administration are pretty God-awful. At the same time, Sanger’s story moves the Times towards the not-panicking position:

The North has long had an array of weapons that could destroy Seoul or hit Japan, including American forces based there. The only new element in the dramatic barrage into the Sea of Japan on Tuesday was the launching of its intercontinental-range Taepodong- 2, the missile that, depending on whose numbers one believes, could eventually hit the United States. So far it has tested the Taepodong twice – the last time was in 1998 – and as Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies put it bluntly on Wednesday, “both failed dismally.”

The experts quoted by Tom Ricks and Faiola in the Washington Post make a similar point:

The major fallout from North Korea’s series of missile launches and the malfunction of its long-range rocket is that its missile program now looks somewhat inept, weapons experts said yesterday. “The Taepodong-2 was not ready for prime time,” said David Kay, a veteran weapons inspector, referring to Pyongyang’s controversial attempt to launch a long-range missile. “The ridicule for the failure is entirely on” the North Korean government…. It was not clear whether the missile crashed or was aborted by its controllers, but U.S. and Japanese officials said that intelligence and monitoring of the Taepodong-2 test launch indicated that it failed. The result of the attempt is that, to some specialists, North Korea looks less dangerous than it did just a few days ago. “Seems to me their ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] capability has gone no better than sideways the past eight years, if not down,” said retired Adm. Dennis Blair, a former chief of the U.S. Pacific Command. “Less threatening, because less capable,” agreed Rep. Mark S. Kirk (R-Ill.), who tracks North Korea.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Japan, the U.S. and the U.K. wants the UN Security Council to sanction North Korea. I’m shocked to report that Russia and China oppose such a move.