John Edwards’s 2008 ambitions get a boost

Are anti-poverty campaigners allowed to drink champagne? If they are, then I expect that John Edwards poured himself a nice glass of bubbles Saturday night. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee just recommended a primary line-up that gives him a great chance of nicking the nomination from under Hillary Clinton’s nose.  

If the DNC approves the new calendar, the Iowa caucuses will kick things off as usual, followed in quick succession by another caucus in Nevada and then primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. It’s hard to think of a better schedule for Edwards short of his own North Carolina gaining first in the nation status. Edwards came a strong second in Iowa last time out and has made the state a home away from home since 2004. He leads the field in early polls there, which considering Hillary’s name recognition are a little more meaningful than usual. Next comes Nevada, where organized labor – assiduously courted by Edwards in recent years – has a heavy presence. Edward’s leading role in the union struggle to raise hotel workers’ wages will have won him considerable good will there. Then it’s on to New Hampshire, which isn’t exactly an Edwards kind of place but neither is it friendly turf for Hillary. South Carolina ends the early stages and Edwards, who won the primary there by 15 points in ’04, must be confident of winning in the state of his birth again. Indeed, a friend of the Clintons objected to South Carolina going fourth on the grounds that it was too much of a lock for Edwards. So, it’s possible that, after the early rounds, Edwards could have notched up three wins before Hillary has even gotten on the score sheet. 

Obviously January 2008 is a long way away, and none of this means that it is fated that Edwards will be victorious. He’s just a slightly better bet than people realize. From a foreign-policy perspective, what would be really interesting about Edwards is not his public disavowal of his vote for war, but his protectionism. A protectionist U.S. would totally change the dynamics of trade liberalization. Also, expect this CFR Report to get a lot more play.