A sportswriting tic that drives me nuts

Yesterday, sports reporter Jeff Horrigan wrote the following in the Boston Herald: Less than two weeks after the All-Star break, the Red Sox suddenly appear to be in desperate need of a collective breather. Entering last night?s game against the Oakland Athletics, they found themselves in sole possession of first place in the American League ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

Yesterday, sports reporter Jeff Horrigan wrote the following in the Boston Herald: Less than two weeks after the All-Star break, the Red Sox suddenly appear to be in desperate need of a collective breather. Entering last night?s game against the Oakland Athletics, they found themselves in sole possession of first place in the American League East for the 36th consecutive day. Yet their grip on the top spot - 2 1/2 games over the Yankees and 4 1/2 over Toronto - appeared more precarious with each passing hour. After losing two of three at Seattle this weekend, the Sox opened a three-game series against the A?s with areas of concern in all major facets of the game. Now, the Red Sox had just lost two games to the Mariners, and their relef pitching and defense did not perform up to spec. However, Horrigan takes a two-game trend and assumes that will be the new status quo. This leads to the argument that the second-best team in baseball (by winning percentage) is falling apart. This is a sportswriting tic that drives me nuts -- failing to recognize regression to the mean. If teams go through a mini-slump or reel off a few victories, it's attributed to a fundamental change in the quality of the players. Sometimes, bad things happen to good players and vice versa. Just because the Sox have a few bad games does not mean that things will stay that way. Baseball writers are far from the worst culprits on this score -- that award has to go to basketball writers. Lest one believe that I'm exaggerating, go back and see what was written about the Heat-Mavericks finals after the Mavs went up 2-0 in the series.

Yesterday, sports reporter Jeff Horrigan wrote the following in the Boston Herald:

Less than two weeks after the All-Star break, the Red Sox suddenly appear to be in desperate need of a collective breather. Entering last night?s game against the Oakland Athletics, they found themselves in sole possession of first place in the American League East for the 36th consecutive day. Yet their grip on the top spot – 2 1/2 games over the Yankees and 4 1/2 over Toronto – appeared more precarious with each passing hour. After losing two of three at Seattle this weekend, the Sox opened a three-game series against the A?s with areas of concern in all major facets of the game.

Now, the Red Sox had just lost two games to the Mariners, and their relef pitching and defense did not perform up to spec. However, Horrigan takes a two-game trend and assumes that will be the new status quo. This leads to the argument that the second-best team in baseball (by winning percentage) is falling apart. This is a sportswriting tic that drives me nuts — failing to recognize regression to the mean. If teams go through a mini-slump or reel off a few victories, it’s attributed to a fundamental change in the quality of the players. Sometimes, bad things happen to good players and vice versa. Just because the Sox have a few bad games does not mean that things will stay that way. Baseball writers are far from the worst culprits on this score — that award has to go to basketball writers. Lest one believe that I’m exaggerating, go back and see what was written about the Heat-Mavericks finals after the Mavs went up 2-0 in the series.

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

Tag: Sports

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