Seven Questions: Somalia’s Struggle

FOREIGN POLICY: Since 1991, Somalia has been torn apart by rival secular warlords. Why has this Islamic militia risen to power in the capital now?

Craig Timberg: I dont think anyone knows for sure why it has happened now. One factor was the U.S. support for secular warlords. When it was discovered that the United States was backing warlords who were widely hated, support for the Islamic militants increased.

Businessmen, civil-society activists, and ordinary people in Mogadishu are also grateful for the law and order that the Islamists have imposed. The tribunals that the Supreme Islamic Courts Council has established enforce the law and punish people who commit crimes. That ability to provide even a low level of order has made them very popular.

FP: So the Islamic Courts are popular with the average Somali in Mogadishu?

CT: When I was there about five weeks ago, it was clear that the Islamic Courts enjoyed a fair amount of support in the capital. Of course there are no polls to measure this. But in talking with people, they were grateful that there was order in the streets and they could move about without being shot.

Theres a lot of wariness in the city, though, at this point. And theres a fear that the Islamic Courts will become more radical, or perhaps already have. Somalis have not been quick to embrace extreme visions of Islam and jihad. So if the courts begin to become too extreme, they will lose their popular support.

FP: How has life in Mogadishu changed since the Islamic Courts came to power?

CT: There are fewer guns on the street. Every once in a while, you see armed gunmen. But thats quite rare. And thats a big change from the past when guns were everywhere. Shops and restaurants are now able to stay open after dark because people arent afraid to go out. Ordinary street crime has declined markedly.

On the other hand, some men have been forced to cut their hair, women feel pressured to veil themselves, and cinemas have been closed. Broadcasts of the World Cup were banned. Its safer, but it much less freewheeling.

FP: Is there any support for an American or international force to step in and prevent the Islamic militia from taking full control of the country?

CT: I cant imagine a scenario where the United States sends troops back to Somalia. When I was in Mogadishu recently, I clearly sensed a popular frustration with the United States for having backed lawless warlords. They used to shoot people and rape girls with impunity. They drove around the capital in fancy trucks and flaunted their wealth. For the Americans to have associated with and supported these guys . . . it made Somalis angry and frustrated with the U.S. government. But in the rallies at the mosques in Mogadishu, theyre not burning American flags; theyre burning Ethiopian flags. Thats where the real, powerful public anger is directed.

FP: Why is there so much anger toward Ethiopia?

CT: The Ethiopians fought a border war with Somalis in the late 1970s, and that left a legacy of tension between the two countries. Ethiopia is substantially Christian; Somalia is Muslim. There are a lot of historic tensions there that are very real and inflammatory.

FP: Where do the Islamic Courts get their weapons and funding?

CT: At first, they were getting a lot of funding and weapons from the business community in Mogadishupowerful men who controlled truck traffic and oil and ports. There were many private militias, and some came together as a group and decided that the best way to bring order to the city was to put their military and financial might behind the Islamic Courts.

There have also been reports that Eritreawhich is an enemy of Ethiopia, which is an enemy of Somaliahas been sending guns. There are also reports that some foreign fighters, perhaps al Qaeda, are involved. Reports of funding from the Arab world are also circulating.

FP: Do you think theres any danger of Somalia turning into a haven for al Qaeda, or something like Afghanistan under the Taliban?

CT: Theres clearly a danger that Somalia could become more radicalized than it is, and any lawless state potentially provides a haven for al Qaeda. If there are huge tracts of land that arent being policed, anybody can be there. Thats a problem.

But I think this Taliban comparison is a little overdone. Somali boys and girls have always gone to school together. The women in Somalia have not traditionally worn burqas, and only a very small percentage veil their faces. They are Muslims, and they are serious about their faith, but it doesnt have the same character that we saw in Afghanistan [under the Taliban]. Its not likely that Somalis will embrace a Taliban-style regime. That said, governments dont always reflect the will of their populations.

Craig Timberg is the Johannesburg bureau chief for the Washington Post.