The glimmer of good news from the Middle East
There’s a great deal to be depressed about when contemplating the situaion in Lebanon, or the Middle East writ large — go check out Marc Lynch’s blog to read about the shift in Arab perceptions as a result of U.S. actions and inactions. However, Niall Ferguson makes a point in the Los Angeles Times that ...
There's a great deal to be depressed about when contemplating the situaion in Lebanon, or the Middle East writ large -- go check out Marc Lynch's blog to read about the shift in Arab perceptions as a result of U.S. actions and inactions. However, Niall Ferguson makes a point in the Los Angeles Times that is worth remembering -- contrary to the fears of a few weeks ago, the odds of a wider war appear to be slim: Could today's quarrel between Israelis and Hezbollah over Lebanon produce World War III? That's what Republican Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, called it last week, echoing earlier fighting talk by Dan Gillerman, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations. Such language can ? for now, at least ? safely be dismissed as hyperbole. This crisis is not going to trigger another world war. Indeed, I do not expect it to produce even another Middle East war worthy of comparison with those of June 1967 or October 1973. In 1967, Israel fought four of its Arab neighbors ? Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. In 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel. Such combinations are very hard to imagine today. Nor does it seem likely that Syria and Iran will escalate their involvement in the crisis beyond continuing their support for Hezbollah. Neither is in a position to risk a full-scale military confrontation with Israel, given the risk that this might precipitate an American military reaction. Crucially, Washington's consistent support for Israel is not matched by any great power support for Israel's neighbors. During the Cold War, by contrast, the risk was that a Middle East war could spill over into a superpower conflict. Hat tip: Oxblog's Taylor Owen. UPDATE: Hey, another glimmer of good news -- it's a trend, I tell you! [No, I'm afraid the AP just mistranslated a statement--ed.]
There’s a great deal to be depressed about when contemplating the situaion in Lebanon, or the Middle East writ large — go check out Marc Lynch’s blog to read about the shift in Arab perceptions as a result of U.S. actions and inactions. However, Niall Ferguson makes a point in the Los Angeles Times that is worth remembering — contrary to the fears of a few weeks ago, the odds of a wider war appear to be slim:
Could today’s quarrel between Israelis and Hezbollah over Lebanon produce World War III? That’s what Republican Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, called it last week, echoing earlier fighting talk by Dan Gillerman, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations. Such language can ? for now, at least ? safely be dismissed as hyperbole. This crisis is not going to trigger another world war. Indeed, I do not expect it to produce even another Middle East war worthy of comparison with those of June 1967 or October 1973. In 1967, Israel fought four of its Arab neighbors ? Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. In 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel. Such combinations are very hard to imagine today. Nor does it seem likely that Syria and Iran will escalate their involvement in the crisis beyond continuing their support for Hezbollah. Neither is in a position to risk a full-scale military confrontation with Israel, given the risk that this might precipitate an American military reaction. Crucially, Washington’s consistent support for Israel is not matched by any great power support for Israel’s neighbors. During the Cold War, by contrast, the risk was that a Middle East war could spill over into a superpower conflict.
Hat tip: Oxblog’s Taylor Owen. UPDATE: Hey, another glimmer of good news — it’s a trend, I tell you! [No, I’m afraid the AP just mistranslated a statement–ed.]
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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