Someone please explain to me how this multinational force will work
CNN reports that President Bush now supports a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon: President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced Friday their support for a U.N. cease-fire resolution to end the Mideast crisis and a multinational force to stabilize southern Lebanon. The leaders said the force would help Lebanese troops ...
CNN reports that President Bush now supports a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon: President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced Friday their support for a U.N. cease-fire resolution to end the Mideast crisis and a multinational force to stabilize southern Lebanon. The leaders said the force would help Lebanese troops take control of the south, where the Hezbollah militia is firing rockets into Israel and Israeli soldiers are striking Hezbollah positions. "We want a Lebanon free of militias and foreign interference, and a Lebanon that governs its own destiny," Bush told reporters after meeting with Blair at the White House. It's unknown whether Hezbollah would participate in the proposed cease-fire and Blair said the multinational force wouldn't "fight their way" into the region. "This can only work if Hezbollah are prepared to allow it to work," the prime minister said. OK, I see... a multinational force that will rid southern Lebanon of militias and "help Lebanese troops take control of the south," but will do so with Hezbollah's blessing. Right. This sounds kind of familiar... ah, yes, here's a front-pager by Thanassis Cambanis in today's Boston Globe that looks at the multinational force that's already in southern Lebanon: A volley of outgoing Katyusha rockets zipped from the hilltop above the gate of the United Nations peacekeepers' compound here yesterday late in the afternoon. "That's Hezbollah, firing from a position 300 meters away," Colonel Jacques Colleville said, pointing up the hill. "Now the Israelis will retaliate." Ear-shattering explosions soon followed as the Israelis replied by shelling the Hezbollah position. Smoke, dust, and fire rose from the hilltop. Israel and the United States have been adamant that a robust international military force should take on the role of peacekeeper in south Lebanon when the bloody two-week-old war between Israel and the Islamist militia in southern Lebanon ends. None of the proposals yet addresses the number or origin of troops or the authority the peacekeepers would have. But any future force will have to contend with many of the same problems that crippled the existing United Nations mission, including Hezbollah's power as a popular guerrilla movement, the weakness of Lebanon's central government, and the limited mandate that has prevented peacekeepers from using force. Colleville, who is French, said the UN troops have been largely powerless to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets right beside UN positions or to intervene when the Israeli military bombs civilians when attacking what it says are Hezbollah targets. Asked whether UNIFIL could have helped disarm Hezbollah, Colleville laughed. "How would I disarm them?" he said. "With my telephone?" The United Nations Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is easy to mock as a symbol of the UN's ineffectiveness. However, their observations of what would be needed to actually do their job are worth noting: [UNIFIL commander Alain] Pellegrini said a future multinational force in southern Lebanon would have to have the muscle to stop belligerents, for example finding and stopping Hezbollah units like the one that started firing from in front of the UN compound in Naqoura yesterday afternoon. ``We have to be well-beefed and able to enforce some international decision," Pellegrini said. ``Heavy weapons and strong rules of engagement." More important , the international force would need approval from Hezbollah's followers, or else it would face the same kind of punishing guerrilla resistance that hounded Israel's occupation from 1982 to 2000, UNIFIL's political affairs officer Ryszard Morczynski said. And he said it should be a UN force, not under some other command such as NATO, as one proposal calls for. "If it's not a UN force, the population won't accept it," he said. ``The population must accept it, or at least tolerate it." Morczynski, who is from Poland, said proposals to dispatch a ``coalition of the willing," rather than a UN force, to disarm Hezbollah and keep the peace in southern Lebanon, could touch off the kind of spiraling insurgent warfare the United States faces in Iraq -- without ever curtailing the power of Hezbollah. He added that the goal should be to control Hezbollah, not disarm it, which he said would be all but impossible. ``If you flatten the country and make it a parking lot, then you will disarm Hezbollah," he said.Question to readers: does anyone believe it would be possible to constitute a multinaional force that would be able to constrain Hezbollah's actions without triggering more bloodshed? UPDATE: Another question -- who's going to commit troops to such a force? As Elaine Sciolino and Steve Erlanger pointed out a few days ago, it's not like the countries calling for a multinational force actually want to send troops: The United States has ruled out its soldiers? participating, NATO says it is overstretched, Britain feels its troops are overcommitted and Germany says it is willing to participate only if Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that it would police, agrees to it, a highly unlikely development. ?All the politicians are saying, ?Great, great? to the idea of a force, but no one is saying whose soldiers will be on the ground,? said one senior European official. ?Everyone will volunteer to be in charge of the logistics in Cyprus.?
CNN reports that President Bush now supports a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire in Lebanon:
President Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced Friday their support for a U.N. cease-fire resolution to end the Mideast crisis and a multinational force to stabilize southern Lebanon. The leaders said the force would help Lebanese troops take control of the south, where the Hezbollah militia is firing rockets into Israel and Israeli soldiers are striking Hezbollah positions. “We want a Lebanon free of militias and foreign interference, and a Lebanon that governs its own destiny,” Bush told reporters after meeting with Blair at the White House. It’s unknown whether Hezbollah would participate in the proposed cease-fire and Blair said the multinational force wouldn’t “fight their way” into the region. “This can only work if Hezbollah are prepared to allow it to work,” the prime minister said.
OK, I see… a multinational force that will rid southern Lebanon of militias and “help Lebanese troops take control of the south,” but will do so with Hezbollah’s blessing. Right. This sounds kind of familiar… ah, yes, here’s a front-pager by Thanassis Cambanis in today’s Boston Globe that looks at the multinational force that’s already in southern Lebanon:
A volley of outgoing Katyusha rockets zipped from the hilltop above the gate of the United Nations peacekeepers’ compound here yesterday late in the afternoon. “That’s Hezbollah, firing from a position 300 meters away,” Colonel Jacques Colleville said, pointing up the hill. “Now the Israelis will retaliate.” Ear-shattering explosions soon followed as the Israelis replied by shelling the Hezbollah position. Smoke, dust, and fire rose from the hilltop. Israel and the United States have been adamant that a robust international military force should take on the role of peacekeeper in south Lebanon when the bloody two-week-old war between Israel and the Islamist militia in southern Lebanon ends. None of the proposals yet addresses the number or origin of troops or the authority the peacekeepers would have. But any future force will have to contend with many of the same problems that crippled the existing United Nations mission, including Hezbollah’s power as a popular guerrilla movement, the weakness of Lebanon’s central government, and the limited mandate that has prevented peacekeepers from using force. Colleville, who is French, said the UN troops have been largely powerless to stop Hezbollah from launching rockets right beside UN positions or to intervene when the Israeli military bombs civilians when attacking what it says are Hezbollah targets. Asked whether UNIFIL could have helped disarm Hezbollah, Colleville laughed. “How would I disarm them?” he said. “With my telephone?”
The United Nations Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is easy to mock as a symbol of the UN’s ineffectiveness. However, their observations of what would be needed to actually do their job are worth noting:
[UNIFIL commander Alain] Pellegrini said a future multinational force in southern Lebanon would have to have the muscle to stop belligerents, for example finding and stopping Hezbollah units like the one that started firing from in front of the UN compound in Naqoura yesterday afternoon. “We have to be well-beefed and able to enforce some international decision,” Pellegrini said. “Heavy weapons and strong rules of engagement.” More important , the international force would need approval from Hezbollah’s followers, or else it would face the same kind of punishing guerrilla resistance that hounded Israel’s occupation from 1982 to 2000, UNIFIL’s political affairs officer Ryszard Morczynski said. And he said it should be a UN force, not under some other command such as NATO, as one proposal calls for. “If it’s not a UN force, the population won’t accept it,” he said. “The population must accept it, or at least tolerate it.” Morczynski, who is from Poland, said proposals to dispatch a “coalition of the willing,” rather than a UN force, to disarm Hezbollah and keep the peace in southern Lebanon, could touch off the kind of spiraling insurgent warfare the United States faces in Iraq — without ever curtailing the power of Hezbollah. He added that the goal should be to control Hezbollah, not disarm it, which he said would be all but impossible. “If you flatten the country and make it a parking lot, then you will disarm Hezbollah,” he said.
Question to readers: does anyone believe it would be possible to constitute a multinaional force that would be able to constrain Hezbollah’s actions without triggering more bloodshed? UPDATE: Another question — who’s going to commit troops to such a force? As Elaine Sciolino and Steve Erlanger pointed out a few days ago, it’s not like the countries calling for a multinational force actually want to send troops:
The United States has ruled out its soldiers? participating, NATO says it is overstretched, Britain feels its troops are overcommitted and Germany says it is willing to participate only if Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that it would police, agrees to it, a highly unlikely development. ?All the politicians are saying, ?Great, great? to the idea of a force, but no one is saying whose soldiers will be on the ground,? said one senior European official. ?Everyone will volunteer to be in charge of the logistics in Cyprus.?
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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