Seven Questions: After Fidel

FOREIGN POLICY: Cuba watchers have long expected that Ral Castro would succeed his brother. What kind of leader will he be?

Brian Latell: Ral is something of a mysterious, vague figure. He prefers being in the background, in part because hes always deferred to his older brother, who loves the limelight. Hes the worlds longest-serving defense minister, in office since 1959. He also runs the intelligence and security services in Cuba. He is the organizational man in the Cuban Communist Party. And so, you can say quite accurately that Ral Castro is in charge of the day-to-day operations of the three most important institutions in Cuba.

But Fidel and Ral really are different. Fidel micromanages, and Ral is a very effective organizer and planner. Thats one of the critical differences between them, and its one of the reasons theyve complemented each other so well all these years.

FP: But Ral just turned 75 years old. Is there anyone else in the wings behind him who is being groomed to take over?

BL: No. There has never been a third man. One of the key elements of the Castro brothers political geniusand their longevityis that theyve never had a third person in the line of succession. I think they both calculated that if someone was right behind them, he might become a rival.

But as Ral takes more and more leadership responsibility, he will identify other potential leaders, one of whom will emerge gradually as the next in line. It might be Carlos Lage, whos one of several vice presidents [of Cubas Council of State] and something akin to an economic czar now. One thing that will distinguish Rals governing style from Fidels is that Ral will not want to hold all the senior positions that Fidel has held. And I think that Ral will cede more responsibilities to others. Lage is one of the prime candidates.

FP: Do you think Ral wants better relations with the United States?

BL: I dont think better relations with America will be an early priority. But if he remains in power over a period of time, its something that he will pursue. His early priorities are going to involve security, like making sure there isnt a boatlift of people fleeing Cuba for Florida. He doesnt want anything thats going to be destabilizing, like demonstrations or riots, because that would delegitimize him. He doesnt want violence, because he doesnt want to have a Tiananmen Square situation where troops are going to fire on people. His priorities are going to be to take control gradually and assert his authority, but in a style very different from Fidels.

The exile communitythe Cuban diasporais very mature now and not monolithic. There really arent any significant groups anymore that are militant and that could have much of an impact on the island. The talk of the exile community returning to confiscate property is mostly rhetoric by Fidel and his followers. I know very few Cuban Americans who are planning to claim properties that were left behind.

FP: Will the issue of the U.S. militarys presence in Guantnamo Bay become more of a thorn in U.S.-Cuba relations in the future?

BL: I dont think its going to be an antagonistic or divisive issue. The highest-level talks [between the United States and Cuba] occur at Guantnamo. Theyre called the fence-line talks. The commander of the U.S. base meets about once a month with a high-level Cuban military officer, now an admiral, I think. They talk about mutual concerns and interests. I understand that they have a very constructive, very pleasant dialogue every month. Theres no other regular, high-level dialogue that occurs between our two governments. Thats it. So, I dont think Guantnamo is going to be a thorn. And ultimately, if Cuba is later free and democratic, Guantnamo will once again become part of Cuban sovereign territory.

FP: Cuba has made economic deals with Venezuela and China in recent years. Do you think these good relations will continue post-Fidel?

BL: With China, yes. Ral is attracted to the Chinese political-economic model: continued tough political controls, hardly any space for the political opposition, yet, at the same time, opening up economically, allowing more private enterprise, entrepreneurship, and foreign investment.

Its very hard to predict with Venezuela. [President Hugo] Chvez provides about $2.5 billion worth of subsidies to Cuba, and without that the Cuban economy would be in shambles. Ral isnt in the best position there. Later on, assuming the transition occurs smoothly, I think he will want to decentralize and liberalize the economy. I think theres plenty of evidence to suggest that.

FP: There is a thriving black market in Cuba. Some observers believe that if there is a moment of uncertainty during the transition, theres a danger of powerful criminal syndicates emerging.

BL: Thats a legitimate concern. The Cuban government under Ral will be very alert and very wary about allowing the black market to prosper. But corruption is endemic on the island. Even at some levels of the Cuban military, which Ral runs, a certain amount of corruption is tolerated.

FP: If Fidel permanently stepped down, whether because of complete debilitation or if he passed away, what would the next 24 hours look like?

BL: Probably like the last 24. The successor regime will probably continue on very much the same path. Their priorities are going to be a little different. They will be very worried about maintaining order and strict about not allowing large numbers of people to get on boats. They dont want that kind of crisis.

I dont know why the United States would try to upset the transition. That would be playing with fire. America needs to be watchful and alert. We need to try to anticipate any opportunity thats presented and work with it.

Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst, is senior research associate at the University of Miamis Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies and the author of After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castros Regime and Cubas Next Leader (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).