Mexico is about to get very interesting

The BBC reports that there will not be a full recount in Mexico’s recent presidential election: Mexico’s electoral body has rejected a request by left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for a full recount of votes from July’s disputed election. Instead, the electoral tribunal’s seven judges ordered a partial recount. Mr Lopez Obrador’s supporters have ...

By , a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast.

The BBC reports that there will not be a full recount in Mexico's recent presidential election: Mexico's electoral body has rejected a request by left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for a full recount of votes from July's disputed election. Instead, the electoral tribunal's seven judges ordered a partial recount. Mr Lopez Obrador's supporters have repeatedly said a ballot-by-ballot recount is the only way to restore faith in Mexico's electoral system. The 2 July vote gave victory to the conservative candidate, Felipe Calderon, by less than 1%. The electoral tribunal ordered the recount of votes at 11,839 of the country's almost 130,500 polling stations. Mr Obrador has challenged the election result, saying the vote was rigged. He has said he will not accept a partial recount, raising fears of prolonged public unrest. Reporting for the AP, Traci Carl reports that Lopez Obrador's supporters are not taking the news well: In Mexico's central plaza, thousands of protesters watched the court session on a huge screen, chanting "Vote by vote!" and drowning out the judges' statements. Representatives of Lopez Obrador walked out of the session in protest. Tens of thousands of Lopez Obrador's supporters have camped out in the capital's center for a week, disrupting business and traffic to press their case that their candidate was cheated of victory in the July 2 election and to demand that all the votes be recounted.... Lopez Obrador contends he won the election and argues that a full, ballot-by-ballot recount is the only way to restore faith in Mexico's electoral system. Calderon has expressed confidence the election was clean and fair, and European Union observers said they found no problems in the vote counting. The protest camps in Mexico City's cultural and financial heart, the elegant Reforma Avenue and the Zocalo plaza, have snarled traffic for nearly a week. Lopez Obrador's party controls the Mexico City government, so there is very little chance of the city trying to clear out his supporters. What will be interesting is whether the court decision will increase protests, or whether the current sit-in has turned off former supporters. As this New York Times story by James C. McKinley, Jr. suggests, the street protests are starting to annoy people: The blockade looks more like a fair than a protest. City workers and party members have erected enormous circus-like tents the length of the avenue. There are stages where musicians entertain the protesters, and a photo exhibit of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s life. A volleyball net had been set up, as well as a mini soccer field. But the protest has cost Mr. L?pez Obrador many allies, among them the leftist writer Carlos Monsivais, who believe that causing traffic jams throughout a city that voted overwhelmingly for him is going too far. Business owners in the city center have also complained they are being hurt and have demanded the city government dislodge the protesters, to no avail. Hotel owners say their occupancy rate has dropped 50 percent this week. Restaurateurs and retailers are also hurting. The blockade is causing losses of $22 million a day, estimates the Mexico City Chamber of Commerce. Developing....

The BBC reports that there will not be a full recount in Mexico’s recent presidential election:

Mexico’s electoral body has rejected a request by left-wing candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for a full recount of votes from July’s disputed election. Instead, the electoral tribunal’s seven judges ordered a partial recount. Mr Lopez Obrador’s supporters have repeatedly said a ballot-by-ballot recount is the only way to restore faith in Mexico’s electoral system. The 2 July vote gave victory to the conservative candidate, Felipe Calderon, by less than 1%. The electoral tribunal ordered the recount of votes at 11,839 of the country’s almost 130,500 polling stations. Mr Obrador has challenged the election result, saying the vote was rigged. He has said he will not accept a partial recount, raising fears of prolonged public unrest.

Reporting for the AP, Traci Carl reports that Lopez Obrador’s supporters are not taking the news well:

In Mexico’s central plaza, thousands of protesters watched the court session on a huge screen, chanting “Vote by vote!” and drowning out the judges’ statements. Representatives of Lopez Obrador walked out of the session in protest. Tens of thousands of Lopez Obrador’s supporters have camped out in the capital’s center for a week, disrupting business and traffic to press their case that their candidate was cheated of victory in the July 2 election and to demand that all the votes be recounted…. Lopez Obrador contends he won the election and argues that a full, ballot-by-ballot recount is the only way to restore faith in Mexico’s electoral system. Calderon has expressed confidence the election was clean and fair, and European Union observers said they found no problems in the vote counting. The protest camps in Mexico City’s cultural and financial heart, the elegant Reforma Avenue and the Zocalo plaza, have snarled traffic for nearly a week.

Lopez Obrador’s party controls the Mexico City government, so there is very little chance of the city trying to clear out his supporters. What will be interesting is whether the court decision will increase protests, or whether the current sit-in has turned off former supporters. As this New York Times story by James C. McKinley, Jr. suggests, the street protests are starting to annoy people:

The blockade looks more like a fair than a protest. City workers and party members have erected enormous circus-like tents the length of the avenue. There are stages where musicians entertain the protesters, and a photo exhibit of Mr. L?pez Obrador?s life. A volleyball net had been set up, as well as a mini soccer field. But the protest has cost Mr. L?pez Obrador many allies, among them the leftist writer Carlos Monsivais, who believe that causing traffic jams throughout a city that voted overwhelmingly for him is going too far. Business owners in the city center have also complained they are being hurt and have demanded the city government dislodge the protesters, to no avail. Hotel owners say their occupancy rate has dropped 50 percent this week. Restaurateurs and retailers are also hurting. The blockade is causing losses of $22 million a day, estimates the Mexico City Chamber of Commerce.

Developing….

Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner

Tag: Theory

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