Seven Questions: Fighting Over the War in Israel

FOREIGN POLICY: Will the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah hold?

Efraim Inbar: It may hold for a few weeks, maybe even a few months. But the situation is potentially explosive. Hezbollah continues to have a military presence in southern Lebanon and intends to use force against Israel.

FP: Would a more robust international force in Lebanon be better than the current U.N. peacekeeping presence?

EI: I dont see the French ready to fight Hezbollah. They arent ready to disarm them. I dont see the Germans doing it. And even the Turks do not have the desire to estrange themselves from Arab countries or their Arab allies. Accepting body bags is politically problematic. So, why should they defend Israel?

FP: Why did Israel have so little military success against Hezbollah?

EI: First of all, we adopted a misguided military strategy, relying on our air superiority to save casualties. You cant win a war without soldiers planting the flag. And in this particular war, what was probably needed was some kind of Israeli ground operation to stop the pouring of Katyusha missiles on northern Israel, which was not done. The [Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)] will need to do much soul-searching, regroup to make necessary changes, and win the next round to bring back some of the reputation its lost.

FP: Has Israels failure to downgrade resoundingly Hezbollahs capabilities hurt U.S.-Israeli relations?

EI: U.S.-Israeli relations are on a very sound basis. I detect disappointment among some of my friends in certain circles in Washington about Israels performance in this war. But we are in the same strategic boat, and its quite clear that the two countries are fighting the same war.

FP: Youve argued that it is essential to separate Syria from Hezbollah. So should Israel assert that unless Syria stops arming Hezbollah, it will hit Syria with overwhelming force?

EI: I think that our Air Force can do wonders in Syria. The IDF is better equipped to fight a state than to run after Hezbollah insurgents.

FP: Do you think this conflict made it more likely that Israel will feel obliged to act as Iran gets closer to obtaining nuclear weapons?

EI: Its quite clear that the threat perception about Iran has grown in Israelas well as in the rest of the Middle East, and in Washington. The Israeli preference has so far been for the international community, particularly the United States, to deal with the situation. Israelis have no illusions about the diplomatic course or U.N. economic sanctions. They hope that eventually the Americans will do their duty as an imperial power and take care of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

FP: Does the current situation mean the purpose behind the recently established Kadima Partyunilateral withdrawalis obsolete?

EI: An organization dies slowly. [Kadima] has an organization, not a very good one, so it depends much on the ability on [Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert and some of the people around him to hold this disparate group together. If they can do that, they have chance to survive politically because they represent, to some extent, a centrist Israeli position that didnt often have a political voice in parliament. And so there is, in theory at least, a justification for such a party. Will these particular politicians be able to continue [the party]? I dont know. Some of them may decide to leave the sinking ship: Some will rejoin Labor, some Likud. Some will gravitate to other parties.

Efraim Inbar is director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel and a columnist for the Jerusalem Post.