Tony’s announcement

Today’s announcement by Tony Blair that he will not be prime minister this time next year seems to have staunched the rapid blood loss. Only a major resignation, or two, from the cabinet can force him out immediately and it seems that no one is prepared to put their head that far above the parapet yet. (But stay tuned.)

His apology to the British public on behalf of the Labour party for all the infighting was genius. Indeed, the whole statement was a reminder of why Blair bestrode British politics like a colossus for so long. (Watch it here) Admittedly, Blair will never recover his authority again. But he’s effectively been a lame duck since he announced that 2005 would be his last election. That denied him the weapons of fear and patronage that are such essential parts of a prime minister’s armory.

Gordon Brown is the real loser today because the behavior of his acolytes guarantees that there will be bitterness for many moons to come. The public does not enjoy seeing a government behave in such a self-absorbed fashion, and it appears that Blair—denied the graceful exit he so craved—has no intention of going quietly. Note the wonderful dig at the trade unions in his statement: “The [Trade Unions Congress] next week will be my last TUC, probably to the relief of both of us.” He also conspicuously chose not to repeat his endorsement of Brown as the next leader. Indeed, rumor-mongers will love the fact that Blair was with Education Secretary Alan Johnson, regarded by many as the best bet to take on Brown, as he outlined his plans.

The next problem Brown faces is what to do when he finally becomes PM. Brownites have assiduously courted all those discarded by Blair, but if too many of them are brought back, the cabinet will look not renewed but recycled. (Those who are left out in the cold will, though, feel used from day one.) If his plotters-in-chief are rewarded with senior positions, the Blairites will feel even less loyalty to Brown than they already do. Brown also has to make peace with sworn enemies like Home Secretary John Reid and give them a reason to accept him as leader. Finally, he needs to find a chancellor, which is easier said than done. Being chancellor to Brown will be like being foreign secretary to Blair—a proxy position. It cannot be filled by a Scot and Brown’s former economic advisor Ed Balls is too poor on TV for such a frontline role.