The world in 2050

Residents of Trinidad and Tobago use more energy per person than Americans. Sixty percent of Moroccan women are illiterate. Cuban men have a higher life expectancy than German men. All of these stats come from the "State of the World Population 2006," released by the United Nations Population Fund last week. The report peers into ...

Residents of Trinidad and Tobago use more energy per person than Americans. Sixty percent of Moroccan women are illiterate. Cuban men have a higher life expectancy than German men. All of these stats come from the "State of the World Population 2006," released by the United Nations Population Fund last week.

Residents of Trinidad and Tobago use more energy per person than Americans. Sixty percent of Moroccan women are illiterate. Cuban men have a higher life expectancy than German men. All of these stats come from the "State of the World Population 2006," released by the United Nations Population Fund last week.

The report peers into the future to project that the world's population will rise from 6.54 billion today to 9.07 billion by 2050. This growth will be far from evenly distributed. The population of Africa will more than double, with Uganda being home to 29.9 million today to 126.9 million people in a few decades, while Europe's population will decline by 75 million—equivalent to the combined population of Britain, Norway, and Sweden today. Both Phillip Longman and Niall Ferguson have speculated in FP about the geo-political consequences of all this. 

A quick look at the ten most populous countries now and in 2050 gives you a flavor of what will change. Russia and Japan not only fall out of the top ten, but see their populations actually decline. The United States is the only developed country to see a significant rise in population, another reason for Americans to be optimistic about the future. 

 Top 10 2006
(in millions)
1. China 1323.6
2.

India 

1119.5
3.

United
States 

301.0
4. Indonesia 225.5
5. Brazil 188.9 
6. Pakistan 161.2
7. Bangladesh 144.4
8. Russia 142.5
9. Nigeria 134.4
10. Japan 128.2 
 Top 10 2050
(in millions)
Pop. in
2006
1. India 1592.7
1119.5
2.

China 

1392.3
1323.6
3.

United
States 

395.0
301.0
4. Pakistan 304.7
161.2
5. Nigeria 258.1
134.4
6. Indonesia 284.6
225.5
7. Brazil 253.1
188.9
8. Bangladesh 242.9
144.4
9. D.R. Congo 177.3
59.3
10. Ethiopia 170.2
79.3

James Forsyth is assistant editor at Foreign Policy.

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