Pakistan’s power outage

John Robb over at Global Guerillas has an interesting theory: The power outage across much of Pakistan over the weekend is an obvious sign that Musharraf’s grasp on power is slipping. Why? Because these kind of infrastructure attacks are tactics straight out of the global guerilla playbook – strike at basic needs and work up. ...

606927_Musharraf5.jpg
606927_Musharraf5.jpg

John Robb over at Global Guerillas has an interesting theory: The power outage across much of Pakistan over the weekend is an obvious sign that Musharraf's grasp on power is slipping. Why? Because these kind of infrastructure attacks are tactics straight out of the global guerilla playbook - strike at basic needs and work up. According to Robb, Musharraf is in "survival mode" and no doubt believes that his life is in danger (there have been a number of assassination attempts in recent years), but he has far more to fear from these infrastructure attacks - the ones that "fragment Pakistan's society and economy" - because it's these that will drive him from power. They're the same tactics that insurgents have used in Iraq. If this wasn't worrisome enough, here are a few of Musharraf's recent decisions that are putting U.S. strategy in the region at risk:

John Robb over at Global Guerillas has an interesting theory: The power outage across much of Pakistan over the weekend is an obvious sign that Musharraf’s grasp on power is slipping. Why? Because these kind of infrastructure attacks are tactics straight out of the global guerilla playbook – strike at basic needs and work up. According to Robb, Musharraf is in “survival mode” and no doubt believes that his life is in danger (there have been a number of assassination attempts in recent years), but he has far more to fear from these infrastructure attacks – the ones that “fragment Pakistan’s society and economy” – because it’s these that will drive him from power. They’re the same tactics that insurgents have used in Iraq. If this wasn’t worrisome enough, here are a few of Musharraf’s recent decisions that are putting U.S. strategy in the region at risk:

  • Autonomy to rebels. After the loss of a reported 3,000 troops, Pakistan has ceded the tribal areas of Waziristan (population: 800,000) to pro-Taliban local rule. Weapons will be returned, outposts will be abandoned, and compensation will be paid.
  • Safe haven for the Taliban. Pakistan has cut a ceasefire with the Taliban’s Mullah Omar. Pakistani troops will no longer hunt down the Taliban (and likely al Qaeda) in Pakistan. This ceasefire also prevents US/NATO troops from crossing the border to pursue Taliban forces.
  • Exporting guerrillas to gain good-will. 2,500 Taliban and al Qaeda militants have been released from Pakistani jails (under the stipulation that they will leave Pakistan).

Carolyn O'Hara is a senior editor at Foreign Policy.

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