Why is the GOP gaining strength?
Over the past 72 hours, every poll announcement I’ve seen has the Republicans gaining momentum. Mickey Kaus and Charles Franklin argues that this trend actually started 10 days ago — so no one blame Kerry. How serious is this momentum shift? It’s actually forced the NYT’s Adam Nagourney to perform his prognostication pirouette 24 hours ...
Over the past 72 hours, every poll announcement I've seen has the Republicans gaining momentum. Mickey Kaus and Charles Franklin argues that this trend actually started 10 days ago -- so no one blame Kerry. How serious is this momentum shift? It's actually forced the NYT's Adam Nagourney to perform his prognostication pirouette 24 hours before the election takes place -- contrast today's Page One story with yesterday's Page One. The contrasts with Nagourney's usual tactic of having a "Democrats Gaining Steam" headline on Monday of election week followed by a "Republicans Display Hidden Strengths" headline Thursday. I have a very simple question -- what's driving this? Is it: a) Positive headline numbers on the economy (Dow Jones Industrial Average + falling unemployment numbers)? b) Election coverage crowding out depressing Iraq coverage? c) Foot-in-mouth syndrome among other prominent Democrats? d) A general lack of faith that the Dems offer a viable alternative? e) Republican "dirty tricks"? UPDATE: Hmmm... maybe the GOP isn't gaining strength -- Fox News shows gains by Democrats (hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)
Over the past 72 hours, every poll announcement I’ve seen has the Republicans gaining momentum. Mickey Kaus and Charles Franklin argues that this trend actually started 10 days ago — so no one blame Kerry. How serious is this momentum shift? It’s actually forced the NYT’s Adam Nagourney to perform his prognostication pirouette 24 hours before the election takes place — contrast today’s Page One story with yesterday’s Page One. The contrasts with Nagourney’s usual tactic of having a “Democrats Gaining Steam” headline on Monday of election week followed by a “Republicans Display Hidden Strengths” headline Thursday. I have a very simple question — what’s driving this? Is it:
a) Positive headline numbers on the economy (Dow Jones Industrial Average + falling unemployment numbers)? b) Election coverage crowding out depressing Iraq coverage? c) Foot-in-mouth syndrome among other prominent Democrats? d) A general lack of faith that the Dems offer a viable alternative? e) Republican “dirty tricks“?
UPDATE: Hmmm… maybe the GOP isn’t gaining strength — Fox News shows gains by Democrats (hat tip: Andrew Sullivan)
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Twitter: @dandrezner
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