Sign # 347 that the Doha round is deader than a doornail
The Democratic victories have generated a lot of pessimism in the business press about there being any chance for a revival of world trade talks. I’m certainly not optimistic about a revival in trade talks. That said, let me offer two counters to this — one positive and one negative. The negative is that there ...
The Democratic victories have generated a lot of pessimism in the business press about there being any chance for a revival of world trade talks. I'm certainly not optimistic about a revival in trade talks. That said, let me offer two counters to this -- one positive and one negative. The negative is that there wasn't exactly a lot of momentum on trade liberalization before the election. The most symblolic evidence of this fact come from this Reuters story from November 2nd: Comatose world trade talks showed a possible sign of brain activity on Thursday as World Trade Organization Director General Pascal Lamy arrived in Washington to meet with U.S. officials. Experts said Lamy could be gathering material for a possible draft plan to try to get the talks started again, although the visit was billed as a low-key opportunity for Lamy to meet with top Bush administration officials on the heels of meetings and speeches in New York and Boston this week.... Lamy will return to New York to run in that city's marathon on Sunday. (emphasis added)Sounds like a cautiously positive story, until you get to the marathon part. I saw Lamy speak when he was on Boston, and it was clear that he had trained rigorously for the marathon. This is great for Lamy, but it raises the obvioius point -- no WTO Director is going to have the time to train for a real marathon if there's progress to be made on a trade round. [So what should Lamy have done with his time?--ed. Oh, the impasse is not his fault -- the WTO director has practically no power. His ability to train for the marathon is a symptom of the stalemate among the key countries -- not a cause.] Second, even if Doha goes down, and even if enthusiasm for free trade slows in the Congress, progress towards liberalization can still be made. Consider that in the past week, Vietnam was admitted into the WTO, and the US approved Russia's entry into the organization as well. There are a few other economies on the outside looking in -- Ukraine and Kazakhstan, not to mention a third of the Middle East-- and if the US can facilitate their entry, then the WTO can live up to its name.
The Democratic victories have generated a lot of pessimism in the business press about there being any chance for a revival of world trade talks. I’m certainly not optimistic about a revival in trade talks. That said, let me offer two counters to this — one positive and one negative. The negative is that there wasn’t exactly a lot of momentum on trade liberalization before the election. The most symblolic evidence of this fact come from this Reuters story from November 2nd:
Comatose world trade talks showed a possible sign of brain activity on Thursday as World Trade Organization Director General Pascal Lamy arrived in Washington to meet with U.S. officials. Experts said Lamy could be gathering material for a possible draft plan to try to get the talks started again, although the visit was billed as a low-key opportunity for Lamy to meet with top Bush administration officials on the heels of meetings and speeches in New York and Boston this week…. Lamy will return to New York to run in that city’s marathon on Sunday. (emphasis added)
Sounds like a cautiously positive story, until you get to the marathon part. I saw Lamy speak when he was on Boston, and it was clear that he had trained rigorously for the marathon. This is great for Lamy, but it raises the obvioius point — no WTO Director is going to have the time to train for a real marathon if there’s progress to be made on a trade round. [So what should Lamy have done with his time?–ed. Oh, the impasse is not his fault — the WTO director has practically no power. His ability to train for the marathon is a symptom of the stalemate among the key countries — not a cause.] Second, even if Doha goes down, and even if enthusiasm for free trade slows in the Congress, progress towards liberalization can still be made. Consider that in the past week, Vietnam was admitted into the WTO, and the US approved Russia’s entry into the organization as well. There are a few other economies on the outside looking in — Ukraine and Kazakhstan, not to mention a third of the Middle East– and if the US can facilitate their entry, then the WTO can live up to its name.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
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