The Polonium puzzle

One of the more intriguing aspects of the Litvinenko assassination and investigation is why the killers would have used such a bizarre and dramatic method. If this story is correct—and I don't know that it is—investigators have already traced the substance back to a particular Russian reactor. Surely whoever initiated the plot knew that the material would ...

By , a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies.

One of the more intriguing aspects of the Litvinenko assassination and investigation is why the killers would have used such a bizarre and dramatic method. If this story is correct—and I don't know that it is—investigators have already traced the substance back to a particular Russian reactor. Surely whoever initiated the plot knew that the material would be traced. Two explanations seem most likely. First, someone is trying to frame Vladimir Putin by ensuring both that the killing was as dramatic as possible and that it gets quickly linked to the Russian state apparatus. The second and far more chilling possibility is that Putin or his associates ordered the hit and wanted everyone to know it was them. Some experts have pooh-poohed the idea of a Kremlin connection.

One of the more intriguing aspects of the Litvinenko assassination and investigation is why the killers would have used such a bizarre and dramatic method. If this story is correct—and I don't know that it is—investigators have already traced the substance back to a particular Russian reactor. Surely whoever initiated the plot knew that the material would be traced. Two explanations seem most likely. First, someone is trying to frame Vladimir Putin by ensuring both that the killing was as dramatic as possible and that it gets quickly linked to the Russian state apparatus. The second and far more chilling possibility is that Putin or his associates ordered the hit and wanted everyone to know it was them. Some experts have pooh-poohed the idea of a Kremlin connection.

There was no benefit to Putin or Russian intelligence services to have a highly publicised operation like this." 

But was there really no motive? Aside from the benefit of removing a nettlesome critic, can't a demonstration of ruthlessness itself be useful to a politician? The Kremlin might have calculated that the fear and awe generated by the killing would outweigh the opprobrium. It's better to be feared than loved, after all.   

David Bosco is a professor at Indiana University’s Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies. He is the author of The Poseidon Project: The Struggle to Govern the World’s Oceans. Twitter: @multilateralist

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