King Abdullah to the rescue?

Friday’s New York Times article about the plight of Iraqi refugees in Jordan brings back to the forefront one of the United States’ most underrated allies in the Middle East. A monarchy that has made wavering steps toward democracy, supported the U.S. wars in Iraq and against al-Qaeda, signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994 and whose population is 50–70 percent Palestinian, Iraq’s western neighbor is on the front lines of multiple conflicts in the Middle East. Moreover, Jordan’s interests tend to coincide with those of the United States.

A recent report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) says why: First, Jordan is interested in a stable, united Iraq, one not influenced by the Iranians. As noted by the Times, Iraq’s current instability is already threatening the country politically, economically and socially. Jordan cannot afford to see the situation deteriorate further. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of Jordanians are Sunni Muslims. Jordanians do not want to see their Sunni brethren massacred, but nor do they want to bear the brunt of a sectarian conflict if Iran and Saudi Arabia decided to mix it up in Iraq.

Second, Jordan is not interested in Hamas’s survival. Hamas’s ascendancy in Palestinian politics has sparked religious and anti-Israel fervor among the Jordanian populace. Like every Muslim state outside of Iran (where they are the rulers) religious extremists pose a threat to the Jordanian monarchy. King Abdullah is more interested in the economic and security benefits he gets from the United States because of his moderate stance on Israel and other matters than he is in fighting for the Palestinians. Indeed, the “trans-jordanian nationalists” that form the bedrock of King Abdullah’s support probably fear the Palestinians as much as they do the Israelis.

The report acknowledges that Jordan never has been and probably never will be a key player in Middle Eastern politics, but that doesn’t mean that the country should be ignored. (To be fair, Jordan was briefly discussed in the ISG report.) Moreover, USIP’s recommendations for the United States—encourage Jordanian engagement in Iraq, ensure the oil-free state’s energy security and continue to assist Jordan economically—are hardly groundbreaking. Yet, reading the report, I can’t help but think that the United States would benefit from giving more attention to the U.S.-Jordanian relationship.