ExxonMobil’s view of the never-changing world

Andrew Penner/ Istockphoto

For ExxonMobil, the world is rapidly changing, but somehow their business will stay exactly the same. What follows are facts gleaned from ExxonMobil’s The Outlook for Energy, A view to 2030 (PDF)

• “Most of the world’s growing energy needs by 2030 will continue to be met by oil, gas and coal.” Today, 80% of the energy we use comes from fossil fuel. Exxon doesn’t expect that number to change.
• The world will require “about 60%” more energy in 2030 than it does today. That’s a total consumption of 325 million barrels per day.
• Non-OECD nations will account for 80% of that increase.
• In 2000, non-OECD countries drove roughly 100 million cars. By 2030 they’ll drive 500 million.
• If the world were not moving towards more efficient use of energy, our energy use in 2030 would be 100% higher than it is today. Good thing we’re so efficient.
• By 2030, wind and solar will only account for 1% of all energy produced.
• By 2030, 30% of all new vehicles sold will be hybrids or other high-efficiency vehicles.
• Biofuels will make up only 2% of all liquid fuels by 2030, Bio-Willie notwithstanding.
• The USGS estimates there are around 3.2 trillion barrels of oil that can be extracted from the world. ExxonMobil sees around 4 trillion as economically recoverable.
• Corn-based ethanol is a non-starter. By 2012, the U.S. will burn up 21% of the U.S. corn crop to create 3% of our fuel. Exxon chortles: “…this provides some perspective on its ultimate potential as an alternative fuel supply.”
• Cellulose is also too complicated to turn into fuel. The process involves enzymes and other things oil men find unfamiliar and strange. President Bush was foolish to tout the energy potential of switchgrass.
• Natural gas will become more popular than any other fuel, and most of it will be used in power generation.
• CO2 production will increase at exactly the same rate as energy consumption.
• There are four opportunities to reduce carbon emissions: nuclear power, advanced vehicles and fuels, carbon capture, and “breakthroughs.”
• ExxonMobil helped establish (via a $100 million grant) Stanford Univeristy’s Global Climate and Energy Project. ExxonMobil hopes Stanford will provide some breakthroughs.

(Hat tip: Energybulletin.net)