Iran defiant, but moving slowly on nukes
VERHAEGEN/AFP Reports about Iran’s nuclear program have been almost uniformly negative lately, and with good reason—Iran has continued to pursue enrichment in defiance of the U.N. Security Council. But as diplomatic rhetoric heats up, it is easy to forget just how difficult building a nuclear capability can be, whether for weapons or for electricity. Thursday’s ...
VERHAEGEN/AFP
Reports about Iran’s nuclear program have been almost uniformly negative lately, and with good reason—Iran has continued to pursue enrichment in defiance of the U.N. Security Council. But as diplomatic rhetoric heats up, it is easy to forget just how difficult building a nuclear capability can be, whether for weapons or for electricity.
Thursday’s International Atomic Energy Agency report (pdf) on Iran’s nuclear activities is quite depressing. It highlights many areas where, in addition to defying the Security Council, Iran has been dragging its feet or refusing to comply with IAEA requests. For instance, Iran has “declined to agree at this stage” to remote monitoring at the Natanz enrichment plant, a safeguard the IAEA deems crucial. Iran’s lack of cooperation doesn’t necessarily imply nefarious intent—Iran says it needs clarification of the “legal basis” for remote monitoring, and has accepted “interim safeguards” instead—but to many, it certainly looks like Iran is hiding a weapons program.
However, the report also highlights the slow, incremental nature of nuclear technology development. Remember the Iranian centrifuges that blew up? Any number of things could have gone wrong: Human fingerprints can unbalance a centrifuge enough for it to break down, and problems with the tiny ball bearings they spin on can derail an entire project. The IAEA report confirms that the Iranians are moving carefully and slowly; they still probably have fewer than 500 centrifuges running, though they say they have almost finished installing another 300 or so. Iran has long maintained that it will install 3,000 centrifuges by March, a goal it will not meet if it continues at its previous rate.
This should not take attention away from Iran’s blatant defiance of the U.N. Security Council and the IAEA, but—for now—there is some time to pursue options before Iran is even capable of building a nuclear bomb.
Editor’s note: For more technical details, see Eric’s post at Noah Shachtman’s new blog, Danger Room.
Eric Hundman is a science fellow at the Center for Defense Information. His research focuses on emerging technology, terrorism and nuclear policy, including the conventionalization of nuclear forces. He contributes a series of posts for Passport on nuclear technology called “Nuke Notes.”
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