Debating Plan B

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution who is ubiquitous in the U.S. media, told CNN’s John Roberts on Saturday: It seems to me the logical thing is to wait four to six months and use that four to six months to evaluate the surge, and then to develop some plan ...

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603713_070227_planb_05.jpg

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP

AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP

Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution who is ubiquitous in the U.S. media, told CNN’s John Roberts on Saturday:

It seems to me the logical thing is to wait four to six months and use that four to six months to evaluate the surge, and then to develop some plan B proposals.

That’s exactly what the U.S. public and political class shouldn’t do, Colin Kahl argues in a new web exclusive for FP. It’s choosing a future path now, not four or six months down the line, Kahl says, that will allow the United States to avoid being caught off guard if the surge fails. As a Council on Foreign Relations fellow at the U.S. Department of Defense, Kahl traveled to Baghdad in July of 2006 to conduct a study on post-conflict stability operations, so he knows the terrain.

Kahl isn’t the only one worried about Plan B. One of Iraq’s three vice presidents, Sunni Arab leader Tariq al-Hashemi, told the Associated Press:

I was very frank with the American administration. I encouraged them to think seriously about ‘Plan B,'” he said. “What sort of alternative do we have in the future in case the current security plan fails?”

The answer appears to be “none,” at least so far. Check out Kahl’s piece to see why waiting until the last minute is a bad idea.

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