The List: Products in Peril

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The Incandescent Light Bulb

Why its endangered: Global warming. The bulbs waste up to 95 percent of the energy they use, making them an easy target for governments under pressure to reduce carbon emissions.

The alternatives: Compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and light emitting diodes (LEDs). Up to five times more efficient than incandescent bulbs, CFL bulbs also last four to ten times longer. Yet although theyre cheaper in the long run, most consumers have been reluctant to pay the extra initial cost per bulb. LEDs are brighter than incandescents, up to twelve times as efficient, and last even longer than CFLs, but they have yet to break out of the high-end market.

The future: Lights out. Australia plans to phase out incandescent bulbs by 2010, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 800,000 tons a year by 2012. And last month, the European Union ordered member states to ban incandescent bulbs within two years, saving some 20 million tons of carbon emissions every year. There have been calls to introduce similar legislation in California. Light bulb makers have gotten the message, and are pushing consumers to shift to CFLs. Even Wal-Mart has joined in. But if prices come down, the long-term future could belong to LEDs. If just 25 percent of the light bulbs in the United States were converted to LEDs, according to Steven DenBaars, professor of material science at the University of California Santa Barbara, the country could avoid building 133 new coal power plants by 2025.

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The Digital Video Disc

Why its endangered: Evolution. The average life span of a recording medium is estimated to be around 25 years, but the 11-year-old DVD already faces serious competition from superior technologies.

The alternatives: Blu-ray Disc, High Definition DVD (HD DVD), and the Internet. Blu-ray and HD DVD are competing vigorously to replace the current DVDs. Blu-ray offers up to five times the storage capacity of todays DVDs, with the ability to hold up to fifty gigabytes or nine hours of high-resolution content. HD DVD is cheaper, but can only hold up to 30 GB, and has a slower data transfer rate than Blu-ray. Cheaper still are Video on Demand (VOD) services, or streaming movies and videos over the Internet, albeit at a lower quality than with a physical disc.

The future: Blu-ray wins the battle, the Internet wins the war? Already adopted by Sonys highly successful PlayStation 3 and supported by seven out of the eight major movie studios, Blu-ray looks set to outlive HD DVD. But new technologies are already on the horizon, such as 3D holographic discs, which can already hold 60 times as much as a standard DVD. And then theres the Internet, which offers the promise of instant access to an unlimited number of movies and other video programs. As more households get fast broadband connections, expect shiny discs to seem increasingly quaint.

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The Plastic Bag

Why its endangered: Environmentalism. Four to 5 trillion polyethylene or plastic bags were produced in 2002 alone, but their massive environmental repercussionsranging from animal strangulation to waterway blockage to landfill congestioncould lead to their extinction. An anti-plastic bag movement is building, and a growing number of governments and companies are taking action.

The alternatives: Reusable cloth bags, recycled paper bags and degradable bags. Cotton bags, although their manufacture requires high water and pesticide use, are becoming increasingly popular for shopping because theyre durable, flexible and washable. Paper bags are recyclable and degradable. But paper uses more energy in production than plastic, and it eventually enters the waste stream. Degradable bags that bioerode within three years could be used in garbage bins. But they produce methane, a greenhouse gas, as they break down. None of these are perfect options on their own, but used in combination, they would still be more environmentally friendly than plastic.

The future: Death by regulation and taxation. Ireland reduced plastic bag consumption by 90 percent and earned 75 million euros after introducing its bag tax in 2002. Denmark has its own bag tax, while Bangladesh, South Africa, and the city of Mumbai have chosen to ban polyethylene bags altogether. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Taiwan and the United Kingdom are all considering either taxes or outright bans. Even some companies, notably IKEA, have begun charging customers for each bag. When grocery store chains in the United States start doing the same, youll know the end is nigh for polyethylene bags.

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Ocean-Caught Fish

Why its endangered: Human actions. A combination of overfishing, pollution, habitat loss, climate change and increased demand for edible fish have critically depleted the number of fish in the worlds oceans. And its likely to get worse. Phytoplankton, a key link in the oceans food chain, will become much less abundant as the ocean warms. That could spell doom for the oceans larger (and tastier) fish. Already, ninety percent of all large fish have disappeared from the worlds oceans in the past fifty years, and now tuna and cod are at a high risk of extinction.

The alternatives: Aquaculture (fish farming), extensive fishing regulation, and the creation of marine reserves. Aquaculture now accounts for almost half the seafood consumed in the world. But it usually takes three kilograms of wild fish to feed one kilogram of farmed fish. Regulation could halt or even reverse the slide in fish populations. But since nobody owns the ocean, instituting effective quota restrictions and bans is plagued with problems, especially in places with strong fishing lobbies. Creating marine reserves or no-fishing zones offers more hope. Right now, however, only one hundredth of one percent of the worlds oceans is fully protected, but tests from this sliver show that marine reserves can help fish populations rebound.

The future: Get used to farm-raised fish. So far, governments have failed to institute effective measures to protect wild fisheries. Just a few months ago, the EU refused to ban cod fishing in spite of advice from scientists and environmentalists, and even increased catch quotas for certain species. Unless governments can work together to solve the problemor people drastically cut their consumption of seafoodwe can expect to see the worlds oceans empty of commercial fish by 2048, according to an international study led by Dr. Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia.

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