Iran’s politicians writing checks its technicians can’t cash

What should we make of Iran’s announcement that the country’s production of nuclear fuel has reached “industrial scale”? ATTA KENARE/AFP Arms control analyst Jeffrey Lewis reacted thusly to the news on his blog: “Whatever.” As Lewis goes on to explain in wonkish detail, there are good reasons to be skeptical of Iran’s enrichment prowess. After ...

By , a former managing editor of Foreign Policy.
602719_070409_ahmadinejad_05.jpg
602719_070409_ahmadinejad_05.jpg

What should we make of Iran's announcement that the country's production of nuclear fuel has reached "industrial scale"?

What should we make of Iran’s announcement that the country’s production of nuclear fuel has reached “industrial scale”?

ATTA KENARE/AFP

Arms control analyst Jeffrey Lewis reacted thusly to the news on his blog: “Whatever.”

As Lewis goes on to explain in wonkish detail, there are good reasons to be skeptical of Iran’s enrichment prowess. After all, getting enough material to build a bomb is extremely difficult. (Lewis coauthored the cover story on how a pickup team of terrorists could build a crude nuclear bomb for FP‘s November/December 2006 issue.)

So why make these grandiose claims, if they’re so easy to debunk? Most likely, as nuke expert David Albright explains to the New York Times, “Ahmadinejad is trying to demonstrate facts on the ground and negotiate from a stronger position.” After all, it worked for North Korea.

It will be interesting to see how the Bush administration reacts to Iran’s announcement. As recently as March 27, the State Department’s Nicholas Burns was essentially mocking the Iranians‘ lack of technical acumen:

I think the Iranians have had a considerable degree of difficulty in proceeding with their enrichment experimentation,” he says. “They have made these fantastic claims . . . and yet according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, they have not been able to manage quite as well as they thought they would.”

That, however, was before Iran played catch-and-release with 15 British sailors and marines, putting the U.S. military on edge. My guess? The Bush administration will keep plowing ahead on the diplomatic track at the United Nations and ratcheting up the financial pressure, while quietly signaling that it is ready to go the military route if Iran doesn’t back down.

Blake Hounshell is a former managing editor of Foreign Policy.

More from Foreign Policy

The USS Nimitz and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and South Korean Navy warships sail in formation during a joint naval exercise off the South Korean coast.
The USS Nimitz and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and South Korean Navy warships sail in formation during a joint naval exercise off the South Korean coast.

America Is a Heartbeat Away From a War It Could Lose

Global war is neither a theoretical contingency nor the fever dream of hawks and militarists.

A protester waves a Palestinian flag in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, during a demonstration calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. People sit and walk on the grass lawn in front of the protester and barricades.
A protester waves a Palestinian flag in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, during a demonstration calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. People sit and walk on the grass lawn in front of the protester and barricades.

The West’s Incoherent Critique of Israel’s Gaza Strategy

The reality of fighting Hamas in Gaza makes this war terrible one way or another.

Biden dressed in a dark blue suit walks with his head down past a row of alternating U.S. and Israeli flags.
Biden dressed in a dark blue suit walks with his head down past a row of alternating U.S. and Israeli flags.

Biden Owns the Israel-Palestine Conflict Now

In tying Washington to Israel’s war in Gaza, the U.S. president now shares responsibility for the broader conflict’s fate.

U.S. President Joe Biden is seen in profile as he greets Chinese President Xi Jinping with a handshake. Xi, a 70-year-old man in a dark blue suit, smiles as he takes the hand of Biden, an 80-year-old man who also wears a dark blue suit.
U.S. President Joe Biden is seen in profile as he greets Chinese President Xi Jinping with a handshake. Xi, a 70-year-old man in a dark blue suit, smiles as he takes the hand of Biden, an 80-year-old man who also wears a dark blue suit.

Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet

As the latest crisis in the straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.