The List: After Musharraf
Pervez Musharraf has a crisis on his hands. Since sacking Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in March, opposition to Pakistan’s military president has flared out of control. With protests turning ugly, dozens dead in Karachi, and strikes convulsing the country, many wonder if Musharraf can maintain his grip on power. In this List, FP takes a look at the candidates gunning for control of Pakistan.
MARK WILSON/Getty Images News
MARK WILSON/Getty Images News
Benazir Bhutto
Who is she? Exiled leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and prime minister from 1988 to 1990 and 1993 to 1996.
Why shell get the job: Shes the face of civilian politics. Even from exile, Bhutto has been the fiercest critic of Musharrafs clumsy military rule. More importantly, she remains the vital figure in civilian politics despite years out of the country. If the people of Pakistan decide that now is the time for the government to return to civilian hands, they will turn to Bhutto and the PPP.
Why she wont: Shes hated by the right people. Bhuttos two stints as prime minister both ended in acrimony and accusations of all-pervasive corruption. Moreover, conservative forces within the religious establishment and the powerful intelligence services are horrified by the idea of any woman, let alone one as controversial as Bhutto, leading the country. They will go to any lengthsincluding, but not limited to, throwing the electionsto keep her out of power.
The odds: Shes the top contender. For all her demonstrated failings and unique ability to divide, she has countrywide support and is poised to ride the wave of antimilitary sentiment.
SPENCER PLATT/Getty Images News
Nawaz Sharif
Who is he? Along with Bhutto, one of the two figures who have monopolized civilian politics for the last decade. As leader of his Pakistan Muslim League party, he served as prime minister between 1990 and 1993 and again from 1997 to 1999. His last term ended miserably, with a forced departure for Saudi Arabia.
Why hell get the job: Hes the palatable civilian politician. With bloody protests against military rule, the Army may reconsider its tactics and withdraw to behind-the-scenes power. If so, theyll want a stooge to handle the day-to-day business of government, freeing up the generals to focus on their core issues of national security, foreign policy, and atomic weapons. Sharif fits the bill perfectly: experienced, inoffensive, and an undemanding ally.
Why he wont: Tepid support. Sharifs reputation is no more pristine than that of his rival Bhutto. But where she has fiery charisma and countrywide backing, Sharifs following is limited to the Punjab region, and he has never been anything more than a competent administrator. Before he made his exit for Saudi Arabia, the Army dragged his reputation through the mud, and his Pakistan Muslim League party tore itself apart.
The odds: Slim. In such turbulent times, its unlikely that the high passions ripping through Pakistan will settle on everyones second choice. His promotion would lead to further protests and prolong instability.
AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images
General Ahsan Saleem Hayat
Who is he? Vice chief of staff of the Army. After President Musharraf, he is Pakistans top military official: an important man in a nation where the military is crucial to all things political.
Why hell get the job: The chain of command. If the situation in Pakistan escalates, with more deaths and protests, the military will feel obliged to restore order, even if that means moving against Musharraf, one of their own. In that case, the man on point to take over as president will have to come from within the armed forces. Hayat will have no choice but to assume power and take steps to suppress the opposition.
Why he wont: Hes on his way out. The vice chiefs of staff serve three-year terms, and Hayat began his over 2 years ago. Musharraf originally scheduled elections for October. Theyve since been indefinitely postponed, and the outgoing parliament will likely elect the next president in any case. And by the time the moment of truth comes around, Hayats chance may well have passed.
The odds: Negligible. Assuming he plays by the rulesalways questionable in a country where political promises are routinely brokenHayat will not be able to get within touching distance of the top job.
CHIP SOMODEVILLA/Getty Images News
Pervez Musharraf
Who is he? Army chief of staff and president of Pakistan. Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and has survived protests about his dual roles ever since.
Why hell get the job: Canny politics and foreign support. Musharraf has never been overly concerned by popular opinion, and he knows how to manipulate the political process. He is more than capable of staging elections to defuse tension, and rigging the results to ensure he comes out on top. And with the United States heavily invested in the anti-Taliban campaign raging in Pakistans tribal territories, Musharraf will have few problems getting international blessing.
Why he wont: Military concerns. Musharraf serves at the pleasure of the military. If they decide that Musharraf now creates more security problems than he solves, the armed forces wont hesitate to oust him as their chief of staff. Theoretically, he would remain as president of the nation. But a president that has been rejected by the military would have decidedly bleak prospectsand Musharraf knows it.
The odds: Very good. Musharraf is in a tight spothes never faced such bitter and determined opposition despite years of domestic and international criticism. Even so, as long as he still dominates civilian and military politics, hes the man holding the cards.
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