Lugar to Bush: Revise Iraq policy or else

The former chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee fired a subtle shot across the bow of the White House this week. His message? President Bush must revise his Iraq policy now, or face mass revolt within his own party come fall. The warning was delivered in a floor speech by Sen. Richard Lugar, who has apparently now decided that President Bush's troop surge is a failure and the that U.S. must begin withdrawing some troops from Iraq immediately. Here's how to read Lugar's comments:

Lugar: The prospects that the current “surge” strategy will succeed in the way originally envisioned by the President are very limited within the short period framed by our own domestic political debate…. Unless we recalibrate our strategy in Iraq to fit our domestic political conditions and the broader needs of U.S. national security, we risk foreign policy failures that could greatly diminish our influence in the region and the world.

Translation: Come January, Democrats will probably have the 60 votes necessary to pass legislation that would cut off funding for the war and bring troops home.

Lugar: In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved. Persisting indefinitely with the surge strategy will delay policy adjustments that have a better chance of protecting our vital interests over the long term.

Translation: Most folks on the Hill believe that the assessment of the Baghdad security plan to be delivered by Gen. David Petraeus in September will say little or nothing other than "some progress has been made but more time is needed." But the status quo is not sustainable.

Lugar: Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari has told me that various aspects of an oil law and revenue distribution could be passed by September. But he emphasized that Iraqis are attempting to make policy in a difficult environment by broad consensus — not by majority vote. He believes other policy advancements will take considerable time….

Translation: Setting benchmarks for the Iraqi government is all well and good, but it's anyone's guess as to when they will be met.

Lugar: We do not know whether the next President will be a Democrat or a Republican. But it is certain that domestic pressure for withdrawal will continue to be intense…. In short, our political timeline will not support a rational course adjustment in Iraq, unless such an adjustment is initiated very soon.

Lugar: Our security interests call for a downsizing and re-deployment of U.S. military forces to more sustainable positions in Iraq or the Middle East.

Lugar: The United States has violated some basic national security precepts during our military engagement in Iraq. We have overestimated what the military can achieve, we have set goals that are unrealistic, and we have inadequately factored in the broader regional consequences of our actions. Perhaps most critically, our focus on Iraq has diverted us from opportunities to change the world in directions that strengthen our national security.

Translation: This has been a fiasco. And if you think you're going to have an Iraq redux in Iran, Mr. President, think again.