I give Tony Blair a year or so before he quits

Here’s why I think former British PM Tony Blair is making a big mistake in taking the job of Middle East envoy—a job that is apparently limited in scope to “shoring up Palestinian institutions” and not actually negotiating any deals. Alvaro de Soto, who was the United Nations’ representative to the Middle East until he ...

600853_070628_desoto_05.jpg
600853_070628_desoto_05.jpg

Here's why I think former British PM Tony Blair is making a big mistake in taking the job of Middle East envoy—a job that is apparently limited in scope to "shoring up Palestinian institutions" and not actually negotiating any deals.

Here’s why I think former British PM Tony Blair is making a big mistake in taking the job of Middle East envoy—a job that is apparently limited in scope to “shoring up Palestinian institutions” and not actually negotiating any deals.

Alvaro de Soto, who was the United Nations’ representative to the Middle East until he stepped down in May of this year, penned a damning report on the Quartet’s failure in the peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians. It leaked to the Guardian, which promptly published the entire report on its website. De Soto is a professional diplomat who did a lot of good in advancing the Cyprus peace process, so we should take him seriously.

The report is filled with juicy details on why Blair’s predecessor, James Wolfensohn, couldn’t get anywhere. It does credit Wolfensohn with getting across “the notion first put forward by the World Bank that the Israeli closure system was the determining factor in the decline of the Palestinian economy.” But as de Soto notes, “Israel has completely shut off Palestinian workers from going to Israel at all – Palestinians who used to work in numbers over 100,000 in Israel have been reduced to zero.”

And so it’s clear that Blair will have to address this key factor in the Palestinians’ economic catastrophe if he is going to get anywhere … which will entail negotiating with the Israelis. Unless Condi Rice can deliver on this, Blair’s efforts will be useless—and that’s why he’ll eventually quit in frustration. I’d love to be proven wrong.

More from Foreign Policy

An illustration shows the Statue of Liberty holding a torch with other hands alongside hers as she lifts the flame, also resembling laurel, into place on the edge of the United Nations laurel logo.
An illustration shows the Statue of Liberty holding a torch with other hands alongside hers as she lifts the flame, also resembling laurel, into place on the edge of the United Nations laurel logo.

A New Multilateralism

How the United States can rejuvenate the global institutions it created.

A view from the cockpit shows backlit control panels and two pilots inside a KC-130J aerial refueler en route from Williamtown to Darwin as the sun sets on the horizon.
A view from the cockpit shows backlit control panels and two pilots inside a KC-130J aerial refueler en route from Williamtown to Darwin as the sun sets on the horizon.

America Prepares for a Pacific War With China It Doesn’t Want

Embedded with U.S. forces in the Pacific, I saw the dilemmas of deterrence firsthand.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, seen in a suit and tie and in profile, walks outside the venue at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. Behind him is a sculptural tree in a larger planter that appears to be leaning away from him.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, seen in a suit and tie and in profile, walks outside the venue at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. Behind him is a sculptural tree in a larger planter that appears to be leaning away from him.

The Endless Frustration of Chinese Diplomacy

Beijing’s representatives are always scared they could be the next to vanish.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on June 22, 2022.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomes Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, on June 22, 2022.

The End of America’s Middle East

The region’s four major countries have all forfeited Washington’s trust.