Syria vs. Israel: war or peace?

HASSAN AMMAR/AFP/Getty Images

Last week, I made light of unconfirmed news reports that Syria had re-occupied a remote part of Lebanon. Yesterday, the Internets were abuzz with rumors of a Syria-Israel war, coupled with a report that Syria had told its citizens to get out of Lebanon before July 15th. Again, no major news outlets confirmed the story.

Here’s what I think is happening. Neither Syria nor Israel want war. Both countries, in fact, desire peace. With very little coverage in the major U.S. newspapers, Israel and Syria have been sending each other increasingly frank signals indicating that they want to sit down and at least begin talks. At the same time, each side wants to send the message that it is prepared to resolve their differences another way (and Syria is sending its own warnings regarding Lebanon). Hence the rumors of a war that would be in neither country’s interest.

Just today, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert advanced the ball, saying of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, “I am willing to sit with him if he is willing to sit with me. We’ll talk about peace.” The sticking point: Assad wants the United States to mediate, but the Americans don’t want to let Bashar off the hook while the U.N. is still investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.

Olmert knows that both the Egypt-Israel peace agreement and the Oslo Accords began without U.S. involvement. What he does not publicly admit is that it’s doubtful that each side is willing to pay the other’s price right now. Assad will settle for nothing less than the full Golan Heights, while Olmert wants Syria to renounce terrorism as a tool of statecraft and break with Iran. But Assad would be a fool to do that without the kind of guarantees that only the United States can provide. And so we wait.