Your declinist metaphor for today

Analysts have been comparing the United States to a decaying, declining Roman empire for close to forty years now. It has become so clich?d that, according to a little-known DC ordinance, anyone who makes the analogy inside the beltway is forced to listen to either Robert Kuttner or George Will pontificate for an entire hour on its historical appropriateness. Shudder. Given these formidable barriers, it must mean something that the Comptroller General is dusting off the comparison and making it anew. The Financial Times' Jeremy Grant explains: The US government is on a ?burning platform? of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country?s top government inspector has warned. David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country?s future in a report that lays out what he called ?chilling long-term simulations?. These include ?dramatic? tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of US debt. Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were ?striking similarities? between America?s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including ?declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government?. ?Sound familiar?? Mr Walker said. ?In my view, it?s time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.? Mr Walker?s views carry weight because he is a non-partisan figure in charge of the Government Accountability Office, often described as the investigative arm of the US Congress. While most of its studies are commissioned by legislators, about 10 per cent ? such as the one containing his latest warnings ? are initiated by the comptroller general himself. In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Walker said he had mentioned some of the issues before but now wanted to ?turn up the volume?. Some of them were too sensitive for others in government to ?have their name associated with?. ?I?m trying to sound an alarm and issue a wake-up call,? he said. ?As comptroller general I?ve got an ability to look longer-range and take on issues that others may be hesitant, and in many cases may not be in a position, to take on.Click here to read more of Walker's analysis. An excerpt: Unfortunately, our government?s track record in adapting to new conditions and meeting new challenges isn?t very good. Much of the federal government remains overly bureaucratic, myopic, narrowly focused, and based on the past. There?s a tendency to cling to outmoded organizational structures and strategies. Many agencies have been slow to adopt best practices. While a few agencies have begun to rethink their missions and operations, many federal policies, programs, processes, and procedures are hopelessly out of date. Furthermore, all too often, it takes an immediate crisis for government to act. After all, history has shown that Washington is a lag indicator! Efficient and effective government matters. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita brought that point home in a painful way. The damage these storms inflicted on the Gulf Coast put all levels of government to the test. While a few agencies, like the Coast Guard, did a great job, many agencies, particularly the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), fell far short of expectations. Public confidence in the ability of government to meet basic needs was severely shaken?and understandably so. If our government can?t handle known threats like natural disasters, it?s only fair to wonder what other public services may be at risk. Transforming government and aligning it with modern needs is even more urgent because of our nation?s large and growing fiscal imbalance. Simply stated, America is on a path toward an explosion of debt. And that indebtedness threatens our country?s, our children?s, and our grandchildren?s futures. With the looming retirement of the baby boomers, spiraling health care costs, plummeting savings rates, and increasing reliance on foreign lenders, we face unprecedented fiscal risks. Long-range simulations from my agency are chilling. If we continue as we have, policy makers will eventually have to raise taxes dramatically and/or slash government services the American people depend on and take for granted. Just pick a program?student loans, the interstate highway system, national parks, federal law enforcement, and even our armed forces.I don't think we're in any danger of the kind of Malthusian trap that plagued the Roman empire, and America's demographic situation is much healthier than comparable OECD economies. That said, clich?s often do carry a grain of truth to them. So read the whole thing. UPDATE: I wonder if Walker is trying to cross-promote this: