Iran to invade Northern Iraq?

MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty Everyone is trying to predict when Turkey will invade Northern Iraq for harboring PKK terrorists. But many are overlooking Iraqi Kurdistan’s eastern neighbor, Iran, which is home to an estimated 4 million Kurds. Reuters reported on Tuesday that leaflets were mysteriously appearing throughout Kurdish villages in Northern Iraq, warning inhabitants of an imminent ...

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599863_070822_pkk_05.jpg

MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty

MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty

Everyone is trying to predict when Turkey will invade Northern Iraq for harboring PKK terrorists. But many are overlooking Iraqi Kurdistan’s eastern neighbor, Iran, which is home to an estimated 4 million Kurds. Reuters reported on Tuesday that leaflets were mysteriously appearing throughout Kurdish villages in Northern Iraq, warning inhabitants of an imminent Iranian military offensive. While the authenticity of these leaflets is still in question—it’s not that hard to type “The Islamic Republic of Iran” across the top of the page and press “print”—the Iran-Iraq border is definitely heating up. An Iranian helicopter crash last Friday sparked speculation over Iran’s military intentions and since then, Iran’s shelling of Kurdish villages in Iraq’s mountainous northeast (a strong base for Kurdish insurgency groups like the PKK and its Iranian offshoot, the PJAK) has only added to the unease. It’s no surprise, then, that hundreds of Kurdish villagers obviously found the leaflets credible enough to flee their homes.

Turkey and Iran haven’t always seen eye-to-eye on the Kurdish issue. During the 1990s, Turkey accused Iran of providing a safe haven for the same PKK militants it was trying to fight. But since the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Iran has been cracking down on the PJAK and sending out stern messages to insurgents. And Kurdish fighters have stepped up their resistance accordingly: The Guardian reports that the PJAK is the fastest growing armed resistance group in Iran, with tens of thousands of followers in secret cells in Iranian Kurdistan.

Relations between Iran and Turkey have been warming of late, and a shared interest in wiping out the Kurdish insurgency might just nudge the two even closer together. Much to Washington’s dismay, Iran and Turkey recently pressed forward with an energy cooperation deal, with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad triumphantly claiming that there were no limits to where Tehran’s relationship with Ankara could go. Let’s hope this doesn’t mean the two countries will go, hand in hand, straight into Northern Iraq.

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