The 2008 foreign policy wonk list
William Arkin does a public service and compiles a list of all known foreign policy wonks currently advising the major presidential candidates. Arkin comments: I think of these advisers as falling into two broad categories: Those providing legitimacy and those seeking legitimacy. The two camps aren’t always mutually exclusive. But it’s a useful framework for ...
William Arkin does a public service and compiles a list of all known foreign policy wonks currently advising the major presidential candidates. Arkin comments: I think of these advisers as falling into two broad categories: Those providing legitimacy and those seeking legitimacy. The two camps aren't always mutually exclusive. But it's a useful framework for analyzing the list, and may help us sort out any conflict-of-interest charges that may arise in the course of the campaign.Kevin Drum is unimpressed (hat tip: Ilan Goldenberg): Of course, what would be more genuinely useful is a list of the people who actually have each candidate's ear on foreign policy, not a telephone book of every single foreign policy wonk who's made an endorsement. I want to know which ones are figureheads and which ones are likely to have West Wing offices in 2009. It's tricky to do that, because a) wonks will often advise more than one candidate; and b) sometimes wonks from losing campaigns rise to success during the general election (see: Jim Baker). This is a blog, however, so it seems like fun to take a stab at answering Drum's question. My answers are based entirely on scuttlebutt, half-assed speculation, and some simple rules of thumb. First, ambition goes up, not down -- i.e., Madeleine Albright's not going to be the NSC advisor when she's been Secretary of State. Second, the national security advisor position usually goes to someone who has a longtime relationship with the candidate. Going through the list: 1) HILLARY CLINTON: Foggy Bottom would go to Richard Holbrooke. National Security Advisor: Lee Feinstein. 2) BARACK OBAMA: Foggy Bottom would go to Anthony Lake. National Security Advisor: Hmmm... interesting list, but I'd put money on Susan Rice. 3) JOHN EDWARDS: Foggy Bottom would go to.... no one on Arkin's list. Not enough name recognition/non-military experience. National Security Advisor: Derek Chollet. 4) RUDOLPH GIULIANI: Foggy Bottom would go to Norman Podhoret... BWA HA HA HA HA HA!!! I'm sorry, I couldn't get that out without laughing. Seriously, on this list, Robert Kasten is the only likely candidate. National Security Advisor: Ken Weinstein Charles Hill. 5) JOHN MCCAIN: Foggy Bottom would go to... well, this depends on whether McCain's contrarian instincts lead him to nominate someone who would constrain his interventionist impulses. If that's the case, then it's Brent Scowcroft or Richard Armitage. If not, then it's James Woolsey. National Security Advisor: Gary Schmitt. 6) MITT ROMNEY: Foggy Bottom would go to... someone on McCain's list -- there's no one on Arkin's list with sufficient gravitas. National Security Advisor: Mitchell Reiss.Readers are strongly encouraged to disabuse me of any of these predictions with really good inside dirt. UPDATE: Blake Hounshell informs me that, "Anthony Lake has said in no uncertain terms that he will not return to government and is happy as a Georgetown professor." Assuming that this statement is genuine and not boilerplate, the only other name on Obama's list that might come up for Foggy Bottom would be Dennis Ross, though it's a major step up.
William Arkin does a public service and compiles a list of all known foreign policy wonks currently advising the major presidential candidates. Arkin comments:
I think of these advisers as falling into two broad categories: Those providing legitimacy and those seeking legitimacy. The two camps aren’t always mutually exclusive. But it’s a useful framework for analyzing the list, and may help us sort out any conflict-of-interest charges that may arise in the course of the campaign.
Kevin Drum is unimpressed (hat tip: Ilan Goldenberg):
Of course, what would be more genuinely useful is a list of the people who actually have each candidate’s ear on foreign policy, not a telephone book of every single foreign policy wonk who’s made an endorsement. I want to know which ones are figureheads and which ones are likely to have West Wing offices in 2009.
It’s tricky to do that, because a) wonks will often advise more than one candidate; and b) sometimes wonks from losing campaigns rise to success during the general election (see: Jim Baker). This is a blog, however, so it seems like fun to take a stab at answering Drum’s question. My answers are based entirely on scuttlebutt, half-assed speculation, and some simple rules of thumb. First, ambition goes up, not down — i.e., Madeleine Albright’s not going to be the NSC advisor when she’s been Secretary of State. Second, the national security advisor position usually goes to someone who has a longtime relationship with the candidate. Going through the list:
1) HILLARY CLINTON: Foggy Bottom would go to Richard Holbrooke. National Security Advisor: Lee Feinstein. 2) BARACK OBAMA: Foggy Bottom would go to Anthony Lake. National Security Advisor: Hmmm… interesting list, but I’d put money on Susan Rice. 3) JOHN EDWARDS: Foggy Bottom would go to…. no one on Arkin’s list. Not enough name recognition/non-military experience. National Security Advisor: Derek Chollet. 4) RUDOLPH GIULIANI: Foggy Bottom would go to Norman Podhoret… BWA HA HA HA HA HA!!! I’m sorry, I couldn’t get that out without laughing. Seriously, on this list, Robert Kasten is the only likely candidate. National Security Advisor:
Ken WeinsteinCharles Hill. 5) JOHN MCCAIN: Foggy Bottom would go to… well, this depends on whether McCain’s contrarian instincts lead him to nominate someone who would constrain his interventionist impulses. If that’s the case, then it’s Brent Scowcroft or Richard Armitage. If not, then it’s James Woolsey. National Security Advisor: Gary Schmitt. 6) MITT ROMNEY: Foggy Bottom would go to… someone on McCain’s list — there’s no one on Arkin’s list with sufficient gravitas. National Security Advisor: Mitchell Reiss.
Readers are strongly encouraged to disabuse me of any of these predictions with really good inside dirt. UPDATE: Blake Hounshell informs me that, “Anthony Lake has said in no uncertain terms that he will not return to government and is happy as a Georgetown professor.” Assuming that this statement is genuine and not boilerplate, the only other name on Obama’s list that might come up for Foggy Bottom would be Dennis Ross, though it’s a major step up.
Daniel W. Drezner is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and co-host of the Space the Nation podcast. Twitter: @dandrezner
More from Foreign Policy
Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America
The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.
The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense
If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.
Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War
Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.
How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests
And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.
Sign up for Morning Brief
Foreign Policy’s flagship daily newsletter with what’s coming up around the world today. Delivered weekdays.
By submitting your email, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use and to receive email correspondence from us. You may opt out at any time.
