Who will win the Nobel Prize in economics?
InTrade has set up a betting market for the Nobel Prizes for economics and peace. The peace prize winner will be announced on Friday, with economics to follow on Monday. I'm not sure where people are getting their information, but the consensus among InTrade users seems to be that Al Gore is the overwhelming favorite, ...
InTrade has set up a betting market for the Nobel Prizes for economics and peace. The peace prize winner will be announced on Friday, with economics to follow on Monday.
I'm not sure where people are getting their information, but the consensus among InTrade users seems to be that Al Gore is the overwhelming favorite, followed by Inuit climate-change activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier, IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri, and veteran negotiator and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.
The economics field appears wide open, with no prospective candidate trading at more than 10 points (100 means that those betting believe there is a 100 percent chance that a given person will be named). Here are the top five:
InTrade has set up a betting market for the Nobel Prizes for economics and peace. The peace prize winner will be announced on Friday, with economics to follow on Monday.
I'm not sure where people are getting their information, but the consensus among InTrade users seems to be that Al Gore is the overwhelming favorite, followed by Inuit climate-change activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier, IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri, and veteran negotiator and former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.
The economics field appears wide open, with no prospective candidate trading at more than 10 points (100 means that those betting believe there is a 100 percent chance that a given person will be named). Here are the top five:
- University of Chicago finance professor Eugene Fama
- Harvard economist Robert Barro
- University of Toulouse economist Jean Tirole
- Avinash Dixit of Princeton
- George Mason's Gordon Tullock
Harvard economist and former Bush administration official Greg Mankiw also handicaps the prize based on which economists are cited most often. "[I]f I had to bet a dollar on this year's prize," Mankiw writes, "I would put it on Fama, [Harvard's Marty] Feldstein, or Barro."
More from Foreign Policy

Lessons for the Next War
Twelve experts weigh in on how to prevent, deter, and—if necessary—fight the next conflict.

It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse
Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.

Turkey Is Sending Cold War-Era Cluster Bombs to Ukraine
The artillery-fired cluster munitions could be lethal to Russian troops—and Ukrainian civilians.

Congrats, You’re a Member of Congress. Now Listen Up.
Some brief foreign-policy advice for the newest members of the U.S. legislature.